Super powers and Bangladesh’s upcoming polls  

Bangladesh is preparing for the upcoming 12th parliamentary election in early January next amid the demand for an interim caretaker government to oversee the polls.

Some anti-government political parties including Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) with rallies and street marches have been threatening that no election will be allowed to be held under the incumbent government, which, according to the opponents were reelected on January 5, 2014 and December 30, 2018, allegedly by rigging.

Meanwhile, following increased interests and concerns from the United States, the European Union, West-based global rights groups in Bangladesh's upcoming elections, many including the leaders of the anti-government parties developed a perception that the incumbent government would bow down paving the ways for an interim government backed by the army and western governments.
However, the perception has been depleted after China and Russia criticized the US and the EU for interfering in the internal matters of Bangladesh.  India also reportedly advised the US - its main partner in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), that political stability in Bangladesh is essential for the regional security.

"The interference of outsiders in Bangladesh's internal affairs is not acceptable. Every country has its own course of action and she has every right to choose her own path, outsiders have no scope to interfere," the latest comment uttered by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Dhaka on September 7 perhaps has strengthened the stance of the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who has been stressing that the election will be held under the country's independent Election Commission.

Lavrov's remarks have also heightened the concern of the opponents of Sheikh Hasina. Now they fear that the fate and the overall security of the country would be in jeopardy as super powers will try to maintain their influence and superiority in Bangladesh.

BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam on September 8, expressed his fear that Bangladesh was going to be a battleground of the super powers, only because of the government's imprudent diplomacy.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh stories took a new turn recently after former US secretary of state Hillary Clinton recently urged support for Nobel Laureate Prof Muhammad Yunus in social media. In her post on X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook, Clinton attached an open letter to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina asking for immediate suspension of the current judicial proceedings against Prof Yunus. A total of 104 Nobel laureates and 79 other global figures, including Clinton, signed the letter dated August 27.

The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OUNCHR) had on September 5 raised concerns over the continued "intimidation and harassment" of Nobel Laureate Professor Dr Muhammad Yunus and two leaders of Odhikar, a human rights organisation, through legal proceedings in Bangladesh.

Bangladesh protested against both the Clinton-led letter and the OUNCHR statement as attempts to influence the outcome of the judicial process. It said the charges were brought against Dr. Yunus for not paying dues of the workers and the Odhikar leaders were sued for intentionally exaggerating death figure of mayhem occurred at Shapla Chattar in Dhaka in May 2013.

According to analysts all these, separate by apparently highly coordinated developments have further complicated the political and rights situations in Bangladesh, where general people have been getting more confused.

However, the anti-government parties are expected to intensify their campaign after Saturday's (September 9) street marches, as the elections are approaching fast and there are only three and half months left.  It is feared that the coming months will see deadly violence as the government is unlikely to budge to accept the demand for holding elections under an interim caretaker government.

According to analysts, amid the stand-off between the government and the opponents, things are still fluid and it cannot be said at the moment what is going to happen. As the country is highly polarized among politicians, analysts, observers, think tanks , intellectuals, teachers, lawyers, engineers, physicians and the media people are sharply divided, but it is interesting that the both groups are equal in size, intellect and capacity.

However, no group can yet clearly say what is going to happen in the coming months and how the elections are going to be held. As a result the people are moved by rumours and speculations. Opponents believe that the government will bow down to the US and EU pressure and will open scope for an interim caretaker government to oversee the election.

Some of them think that army will stage a coup to help the opposition in compelling the government to resign and hold election under a neutral government. They say that the army-backed interim government of 2007-2008, was supported by India. This time they speculate that the next army-backed government would be supported by the US. The opponents think that Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her government would be removed by December.

They also speculate that after the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, BNP Chairperson and former prime minister Khaleda Zia will be released and her son BNP Acting Chairman Tarique Rahman will fly in with a mammoth public reception. They speculate that all the airports and exit points would be sealed to stop Awami League leaders from fleeing the country.

As rumours, speculations and misleading political analysis are rife in the country, concerned people of all tiers remain constant alert to know every political changes and developments in the country.

In a recent press conference hosted by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at her official residence, a journalist wanted to know what was her vision about the expected political developments in the country ahead of the upcoming national elections. But she did not answer the question squarely, but dwelt on the massive development done by her government over the last 15 years, hinting that the people will rally round her and vote her party again to the power for further development.

But the analysts say that only development cannot ensure re-election if the people suffer due to other reasons including poor governance, poor medicare and inadequate utility services and reluctance of the government in keeping the commodity markets stable.

Also poor performance of the Ministers and Ministries in keeping relevant things in order, rein in rising corruption, embezzlement, and money laundering have greatly eroded popularity of the incumbent government. Performance and behaviour of the leaders and activists of the ruling party and its front organizations from the centre to the grassroots levels, are greatly weighed by the voters.

People find many shortcomings among some Ministers, leaders and activists of the incumbent government, for which many of its development works have been eclipsed. Moreover failing to rein in local business syndicates, by the Commerce Ministry have apparently sank the popularity of the government to a dangerous depth.

Failure in fighting mosquitoes has sealed a great stigma not only on the Health Ministry and the City Corporations but also on the government. Death of more than 700 people and infection of nearly 150,000 by dengue had never occurred in this country.

However, the next three and a half months, may give some ample chances to the government for corrections through good governance, so that people can get their minimum needs and utilities at affordable price.

The writer is Business Editor, The Daily Observer