Is BNP becoming a kryptonite?

In the world-famous comic of the mighty Superman, the hero's only weakness is a fictional alien mineral called, Kryptonite. In the fictitious world of comics, it is the only element that seriously weakens the superman and even can cause death to the earth's greatest protector.

In the real world, the name of the mineral, Kryptonite has become a popular term to explain weaknesses or factors that can severely weaken a particular person or group or cause, etc.

Since 28 October 2023, Bangladesh's domestic politics has taken a violent turn through the opposition, Bangladesh Nationalist Party's (BNP) grand rally in Nayapaltan. Violence erupted when the BNP activists clashed with duty police. This time the ruling party- Awami League (AL) is maintaining a restraint. But the opposition BNP is finding no alternative to violent protest to achieve their only demand, an election under an interim government system.
As a result of violent activities, top brasses of BNP are already behind bars with only days to the election notification- Tafshil. The arrest of the top leaders has left the grassroots leaderless and directionless. Many mid-level leaders are in hiding currently to avoid arrests for arson charges. The history of the BNP's violent politics since the last decade suggests that when the party engages in violent politics, violence becomes the BNP's Kryptonite in every instance it tries to achieve a political score.

BNP's Democratic Image
For the last two or three years, the BNP has been centering its politics are centered the demand for a free and fair election under an interim caretaker system. The party has maintained a non-violent approach to its politics that many lauded. Gradually, the BNP developed a democratic image for the international audience.

In the meantime, the party spent a lot on hiring lobbyists in Washington and its top leaders spent busy schedules for deepening its relations with the West. The US democracy and human rights policy under the Biden administration emerged as a blessing for it. Its lobbying also bore fruit, ultimately putting the BNP in a relatively good position in domestic politics and creating an excellent image for the West.

Gradually, BNP's non-violent movements began to rely overtly on "democratic world's intervention" in Bangladesh. Its reliance on the West and recurring space facilitated embassies through putting pressure on the government sustained its movement. As the movement was culminating in the ensuing general election taking place in the first half of January, BNP failed to keep its image intact and engaged in violence that killed one police, one activist, and one journalist injuring hundreds from all side.

The day-long violence also saw setting fire to several police boxes and torching public transports indiscriminately. The unrestrained mob also attacked the house of the Chief Justice and a police hospital nearby. Later, the BNP also announced a strike and subsequently a blockade and renewed the blockade for two more terms. From October 28 to November 9, the nation went through a one-day strike and 7 days of blockade. During the strike and blockade, perpetrators are setting fire to public vehicles here and there increasing fear among the common people.

While many are claiming the pyro-attacks as sabotage, it seems BNP has no concern over the attacks as it continues to announce blockade amid arson. Moreover, law enforcement agencies have already caught several BNP affiliates red-handed during arsonist attacks. As a result, the BNP cannot deny its responsibility for the arson during the blockade.

Immediately after the incidents of 28 October, The US condemned the violence and announced that it would consider the incidents for the visa restriction policy. Other Western embassies in Dhaka also raised concern over the violence and called for practicing restraint. As the BNP is relying on the Western policy in Dhaka overtly, the violence would create distance between the BNP and the West.

So far, the US policy has been favorable for the BNP as the policies put significant pressure on the government. The US engagement with BNP-minded NGOs also bears fruit as the information provided is being cited in the US annual reports on Bangladesh. All these developments are based on the non-violent image of the BNP that the party has been maintaining for a while now. The latest violent turn in its politics would jeopardize this development.

Besides, top brasses are already arrested for their superior responsibility in the violence. That left the BNP leaderless and directionless for the grassroots of the organization. As no new policy program is developing, the grassroots would resort to more violent activities naturally as they are making decisions on their own staying out of touch with the top leaders. The prolonged blockade program is eroding their strength and confidence as well.

Moreover, as the top leaders are behind bars, it would weaken the BNP's bargaining position over the next election. One-sided violence decreases public support for a rational political cause. And no one knows it better than the BNP itself as in the aftermath of 2014's election, the BNP's rampant pyromania severely weakened the party to its core and it lost public acceptance taking a heavy toll on the party.

At that time the BNP lost significant public support, and the violent activities of the party members drowned them under mounting cases for widespread violations of law. It weakened the BNP's financial and structural power, ultimately reducing its strength and confidence. Moreover, the West also kept its distance from the BNP owing to its violent nature. Ultimately, the arsonist policies weakened the BNP severely.

The country's domestic politics has become polarized unprecedented in history over contradicting stances from the two largest political parties. While the ruling AL desires to conduct an election under the current arrangement citing the constitution as its talisman, the BNP's demand for an interim caretaker system is a tough objective to achieve under the current law and constitutional binding. Moreover, the time for retaining the interim system is also very short as days pass by quickly toward the next election.

In these circumstances, there is no alternative to a dialogue for a credible election. The US Ambassador also called for unconditional dialogue in the aftermath of the 28 October. Without a middle ground, it will be tough for the BNP to bounce back through an election in the parliament to strengthen its party. For that, the BNP should explore its other options apart from violent protests for the election; perhaps a mediation by the international community or a national government as per the constitution. The party's Vice-Chairman, Major (retd.) Hafiz on 8 November said during a press briefing that he believes the BNP should participate in the election through mediation from the West- suggesting that there is 'compulsion' among many BNP leaders to participate in the election. For that BNP must avoid violent activities. Otherwise, it would again become the party's Kryptonite like 2014-15.

The writer is a senior journalist and freelancer