Myanmar may drag Bangladesh into its own internal conflict

Myanmar's military is getting deeply embroiled in an escalating conflict with the Arakan Army. In one of the latest incidents, about half a dozen soldiers were reportedly killed in a series of explosions that apparently targeted a military helicopter in the town of Myebon in northern Rakhine state, according to Myanmar Now, an online media platform.

Believed to have been carried out by the Arakan Army or AA, the attack missed the helicopter but it may have killed several soldiers who were providing cover on the ground at the time, the news organization said. "I think they were providing security for the helicopter that was about to arrive. The AA attacked them with explosives. The helicopter didn't land until after the explosions stopped," Myanmar Now quoted an eyewitness as saying.

Meanwhile, as reported by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, escalating hostilities between Myanmar's military and the Arakan Army since last June have led to frequent armed clashes including the use of heavy weapons and airstrikes and most of the fighting was reported to have occurred in Maungdaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, and Mrauk-U townships in Rakhine state and in Paletwa township in Chin state.
Fighting between Myanmar's military and the Arakan Army has displaced almost 9,600 people bringing the total number of internally displaced people from the past to the present to nearly 84,000 in Rakhine and Chin states. According to the latest reports of the United Nations, several key roads and waterways have been blocked, restricting the movement of civilians and preventing humanitarian assistance from reaching people in need.

Since the beginning of last month, intense fighting, shelling, and deployment of troops have been reported, including in the south of Paletwa town, near the Kaladan River and the Kyauktaw-Samee-Paletwa Road. In northern Rakhine, a series of clashes has been reported in Maungdaw, Rathedaung and Buthidaung townships. The first airstrike in Rakhine since the temporary ceasefire of November 2020 was reported in northern Maungdaw late last month.

In central Rakhine, armed clashes were also reported in Mrauk-U township and have extended for the first time to southern Rakhine in Taungup township. There were no reports of displacement thus far from this latter clash. Of greatest concern is the situation in Mrauk-U township in central Rakhine, in Maungdaw, Rathedaung and Buthidaung townships in northern Rakhine and in Paletwa township in Chin. In Mrauk-U township,armed clashes started on August 28.

What is Arakan Army and what do they actually want? The Arakan Army is an ethnic armed organization based in Rakhine state. Founded in 2009, the AA is the military wing of the United League of Arakan or ULA.  It is currently led by commander in chief Major General Twan Mrat Naing and vice deputy commander Brigadier General Nyo Twan Awng. The AA had more than 1,500 troops in 2014 including personnel stationed near Myanmar's border with Bangladesh.

The Arakan Army seeks self-determination for the multi-ethnic Arakanese people, safeguarding and promotion of their national identity and cultural heritage and also their national dignity and best interests. In an interview with the Arakha Media last year, the Arakan Army commander-in-chief clearly stated that the political objective of their armed revolution is to restore the sovereignty of Arakan and there had been no bargaining to regain that and nor would there be any in the future.

What is currently happening in Myanmar is purely an internal conflict of the country between its armed forces and the Arakan Army. However, rising tensions between them are also being felt right across the border in neighboring Bangladesh. And then there have been repeated disturbing incidents of firing mortar shells into Bangladesh territory. Myanmar's fighter jets and military helicopters are also reported to have recently violated Bangladesh's airspace.

According to several Bangladeshi and foreign media outlets, Myanmar's fighter jets and military helicopters intruded into Bangladesh's airspace and fired about a dozen mortar shells and more than 30 rounds well inside Bangladesh territory in the Bandarban area of Chittagong early this month. It was not the first time this kind of provocative incident happened. Similar incidents took place on a number of occasions in the past as well which was a flagrant violation of the international law.  

The latest incident of violating Bangladesh's airspace and firing shells and shots into Bangladesh territory appeared to be intentional as it happened within just five days after the ambassador of Myanmar to Bangladesh was summoned to Bangladesh's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and handed over a protest note for a similar incident on August 28. Myanmar's envoy wasn't definitely sitting over the protest note. He must have notified the authorities about it. Yet, Myanmar's fighter jets and helicopters ventured into Bangladesh airspace and practiced what looked like a one kind of war game.

It may be a strategy of Myanmar's military to drag Bangladesh into its own internal conflict. Many, however, may question why. In that case, I would argue that Myanmar's military may be interested in doing so for several reasons. First, they would be able to show the world that they were fighting a real war against Bangladesh, not a civil war or internal conflict in their country. Secondly, they would be able to tell the world that Bangladesh being a party to a war with them was as bad as they were. And finally, they would be able to permanently scuttle the chances of repatriation of Rohingya refugees.

So, what should Bangladesh do? Bangladesh is in a delicate situation. So, it must also handle this situation in a delicate manner. There may be further provocations against Bangladesh by the bewildered military of Myanmar with the same scheme of drawing this peaceful country into their internal fighting. But Bangladesh must avoid this and handle this situation in a peaceful manner but at the same time resolutely. Firing into Bangladesh territory and violating its airspace is an attack on the sovereignty of Bangladesh. This has to be categorically told to the Burmese envoy in Dhaka with a strong warning that any repetition of similar incident may receive a proportionate response from Bangladesh for which Myanmar would be solely responsible.

In the face of repeated provocations from Myanmar's military, Bangladesh must also reinforce security along the entire Bangladesh-Myanmar border by increasing the number of border troops. Bangladesh fighter jets should also intensify patrolling Bangladesh airspace over its frontier with Myanmar. And each time Myanmar's military fires into Bangladesh territory and its fighter jets or military helicopters intrude into Bangladesh airspace, the Burmese envoy in Dhaka should be summoned and handed over strongly worded protest note. Bangladesh Ministry of Foreign Affairs must also inform every such incident to all foreign diplomats stationed in Dhaka.

Myanmar military's repeated provocations against Bangladesh must also be raised at various international forums including the UN Security Council. While Bangladesh must handle the situation in a wise, intelligent and peaceful manner, it must not demonstrate its weakness in any shape or form that will encourage the Burmese military to continue to violate its sovereignty.  
The writer is a Toronto-based journalist who also writes for the Toronto Sun as a guest columnist