Ukraine crisis: New equation in global politics

No peace-loving people in the world today support war. In this age of globalization, no matter where in the world war breaks out, its effects are felt directly or indirectly on the whole world. Throughout the ages, politicians and statesmen have not stopped their military jingles in power struggles. All the terrible and bloody histories of war have been written by their hands, even though the world's superpowers have been blessed with peace. Given the current reality, the Russia-Ukraine crisis is about to make the world witness the horrors of another war.

As Russia began mobilizing troops on the Ukrainian border in late December, new tensions and negotiations erupted in the international political arena. Finally, ending all diplomacy and speculation, the Russian army invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Russian forces have stormed the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and are continuing their offensive. This war is largely dependent on the map of a new post-war world order. Putin has specific goals and objectives behind Russia's conduct of operations in Ukraine. Russia has demanded a six-point security guarantee from the United States at the start of its operation in Ukraine. But Washington has made it clear that none of the demands are acceptable to the 30-member NATO.

Russia has given the West ample opportunity to avoid war through compromise. Russia also increased the chances of a deal by removing some tanks at the end of February. But that last chance for a compromise faded after German Chancellor Olaf Schulz's visit to Washington. Upon his return from the United States, he suspended the approval of Nord Stream 2 indefinitely. He then announced that he would send weapons to Ukraine. Russia is embroiled in a final conflict when it realizes that its political aims and objectives cannot be achieved without war and that the West is not ready to compromise with them, based on the overall political context.
Russia's main goal at the moment is to gain recognition for the two recently declared republics of Ukraine, Danetsk and Luhansk, and to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. But it is not possible to achieve these two goals without taking control of Kiev. If Putin can somehow achieve these two goals by occupying Kiev, Russia will win and global politics will shift from Europe to Eurasia.  

Putin claims that NATO was expanded without fulfilling the agreement reached in 1990 with Soviet Russia, the United States and European countries that NATO would no longer expand to the east. As soon as Ukraine joins NATO, Russia will fall under NATO military authority. Russia sees the NATO expansion as a security crisis.

Despite the West's assertion that NATO will not be directly involved in the war if Ukraine is attacked, NATO member states continue to provide Ukraine with a variety of logistical support, including money and intelligence. Russia, on the other hand, is fighting alone against the entire West. Russia has come to the fore knowing what steps the West can take to keep Russia at bay. As a result, many international analysts believe that it is not possible to block Russia with economic sanctions. Because, it is not possible for Europe to stop trade with Russia.

Russia is the world's second largest oil exporter. Russia accounts for 30-40 percent of Europe's energy. It is not possible to meet the deficit from any other country by stopping imports from Russia. If gas and oil stopped coming from Russia, Western trade would cease; they will face huge economic losses. If trade does not stop, the flow of Russian money will not stop; Russia will not be weak. So it is questionable how effective the economic sanctions of the European Union and the United States will be. Russia may be able to offset its losses by using crypto-currencies. But there is no doubt that the terrible effects of this war will be felt on the world market.

Russia's victory can only be thwarted by strengthening the defence of the Ukrainian capital Kiev. In this war, Russia wants to reach its goal quickly. Because the longer the war lasts, the more it will have an impact on the Russian economy. Since Russia has no way of retreating in this war, the country, led by Vladimir Putin, will be left behind for decades if Ukraine, with the help of the West, can stop Russia's triumph, join NATO against Russia's demands and crush Luhansk and Danetsk's aspirations for independence.

As a result, the possibility of a change of political centre through the creation of anti-American alliance in global politics remains elusive. And if Putin is able to achieve his goal, world politics will move towards a new polarization where the reins of world politics will not be in the hands of the West alone. Countries like Russia, China, Brazil, India and so on have something to say.  Needless to say, the world is about to enter a whole new political context once the Ukraine war is over. Where there will be a completely different kind of global polarization instead of the world system created by the West.
The writer is a columnist, debater
and student of Department of History, University of Chittagong