Will Rohingya repatriation really happen?

Recently, the issue of Rohingya repatriation has been discussed again. With the mediation of China, Myanmar is now showing more activity than before. In August 2017, Rohingya fled to Bangladesh from Myanmar's Arakan province to escape brutality by the Myanmar army.

In November 2017, Myanmar's ruling civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi signed an agreement with the government of Bangladesh to repatriate the Rohingyas. According to that agreement, the first batch of Rohingyas was supposed to be taken to Myanmar by November 15, 2018.

But it never saw the light of day. Then in August 2019, another initiative was taken by China to send the Rohingyas back. But the Rohingyas did not want to go voluntarily as the citizenship issue was not resolved.
The issue of Rohingya repatriation went largely under the radar after China's failed initiative five years ago. No progress has been seen on the repatriation of Rohingyas to Myanmar after that. A special envoy of China visited Naypyidaw, Myanmar in December last year regarding Rohingya repatriation. He discussed the repatriation of Rohingyas with the military ruler of Myanmar there. The special envoy of China came to Dhaka last April and discussed it with the representatives of Bangladesh. Diplomats from eight countries, including Bangladesh, made a special visit to Rakhine last March.

As a continuation of Dhaka-Naypyidaw talks, a tripartite meeting between Bangladesh and Myanmar was held in Kunming on April 18, mediated by China. It was decided that the repatriation of 1,076 Rohingyas will be started under the pilot project in May this year. As part of that, the Rohingya delegation has visited Rakhine.

Consideration should be given to the reasons why China and Myanmar suddenly adopted joint measures on repatriation after such a long period. Myanmar's military junta has come under some pressure recently. Pressure has increased from Europe and the US, as well as ASEAN, an alliance of Southeast Asian nations. Members of the National League for Democracy(NLD) ousted by the military in Myanmar have formed a government-in-exile called the National United Government (NUG). This government has also received recognition from many countries.

The junta government has to face various rebel groups in many states inside Myanmar. On the other hand, the US government has increased the level of sanctions on Myanmar. On December 22 of last year, for the first time, a resolution was passed by the UN Security Council condemning the repression of the Myanmar army. Neither China nor Russia vetoed the proposal.

Later, US President Joe Biden signed a law named the 'Burma Act'. Under this, the US can provide support to groups fighting against the military government in Myanmar. As a result, Myanmar is trying to brighten its image by repatriating the Rohingyas, albeit on a small scale, to cope with this multifaceted international pressure.

Moreover, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) made some interim orders to protect the Rohingyas. According to the interim order of the ICJ, Myanmar has to report all necessary information every six months until the case is settled. Following this, on May 24 of this year, they must inform the ICJ of what steps they have taken in this regard and what the country's plans are.

The key question now, however, is whether repatriation can be undertaken this time on the basis of prior experience. Due to Myanmar's insincerity and the Rohingya's objections to the lack of congenial environment in Rakhine, repatriation failed to start despite two attempts in 2018 and 2019. According to the repatriation agreement between Bangladesh and Myanmar, UNHCR will carry out the repatriation of Rohingya in Rakhine. Bangladesh continues to try to involve UNHCR in the process of repatriation under this pilot project. But Myanmar's military government is blocking this. So, the lack of confidence among the Rohingyas is not solved.

Meanwhile, the Rohingya delegation came after visiting Rakhine after six years in preparation for repatriation. They also say that they're not being encouraged to go back to Myanmar. It's because it doesn't seem to be a pleasant environment for returning to Rakhine as in the past. In such a context, it remains to be seen whether China's attempt to repatriate Rohingyas from Bangladesh to Myanmar will finally see the light of day or not. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) statistics, more than 9,60,000 Rohingyas are currently registered in Bangladesh. Although Bangladesh has given shelter to the Rohingyas for humanitarian reasons, they have now become a major socio-economic burden.

As a result, it is necessary to complete the repatriation of the Rohingya as soon as possible. Efforts to seek the United Nations and international community's assistance in this process must be stepped up. It is essential to ensure that this repatriation is continuous and sustainable.

The writer is a graduate, LLB (Hons.) at Department of Law, Rajshahi University