Global rice price to remain high in 2024: WB

The prices of agricultural products are projected to fall by 7 percent in 2023 but rice prices will remain high into 2024, 2025 mainly due to India's restriction on its export.

The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook report made the forecast published recently. The average price of rice worldwide increased by 28 percent between 2022 and 2023, and another 6 percent increase is predicted in 2024.

WB projection also shows a further 2 percent decline in agricultural prices in 2024 and 2025 based on ample supplies. The forecasts assume that the latest global war and conflicts will have a limited impact on commodity prices.
Prior to the latest conflict in the Middle East, agricultural commodity prices fell 3 percent in the third quarter, mainly driven by declines in the price of food, the WB said.

"The food price index fell by 3 percent, led by a 7 percent drop in grains. The non-renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, India's export ban of non-basmati rice, and the impending El Ni�o drove the volatility in agricultural prices, but ample supplies kept prices on a mild downward trend," WB said.

September saw the rise in agricultural prices and ticked up almost 4 percent since the beginning of the conflict. Meanwhile, "Domestic food inflation has moderated but remains at double-digits in four out of ten low-income countries and a third of middle- and high-income countries, adding to the burden of food insecurity in many parts of the world."

Commodity prices rose in the third quarter of 2023 owing to energy prices before beginning of latest conflict in the Middle East.

However, they remain only slightly below levels just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine and well above pre-Covid levels.

Though food inflation worldwide is trending down, food insecurity remains a concern, especially for those living in fragile and conflict situations.

Commodity prices are set to fall gradually in 2024 and stabilize in 2025, WB forecast said. Food and beverage prices will decline slightly more, while agricultural raw materials prices will rise by over 1 percent, it said.

The grains price index is projected to fall by 4 percent on average in 2024 and 2025 amid ample supplies and adequate stock levels preceded by more than 11 percent fall in 2023.

However, rice prices will remain high into 2024, assuming India maintains its export restrictions, it said.

A decline has been forecast in sugar and cocoa prices from 2023 highs, though fruit prices should remain high in 2024 on weather-affected supply shortfalls.