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The fall of Assad: A turning point for the middle east and beyond

Published : Saturday, 14 December, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 342
Pranto Chatterjee
The Middle East, a region long characterized by its intricate politics and enduring conflicts, has once again been thrust into the global spotlight with the fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. This monumental event, following over a decade of brutal civil war, is not merely the conclusion of one of the 21st century's bloodiest chapters but also the genesis of a new geopolitical order. The ripples of Assad's downfall extend far beyond Syria, reshaping alliances, intensifying rivalries, and introducing a new set of winners and losers in the region and beyond. From Israel's strategic gains to the precarious position of non-state actors, the consequences are profound and multifaceted.

For the Syrian people, Assad's ouster represents a bittersweet moment. On one hand, it offers a glimmer of hope for a nation ravaged by 13 years of civil war and nearly five decades of autocratic rule under the Assad family. On the other, it ushers in a period of uncertainty. The vacuum left by Assad's regime opens Syria to both opportunity and peril. The question of whether the country can transition toward peace and stability or descend into further chaos remains unanswered.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a key insurgent group, has emerged as a prominent player in post-Assad Syria. While HTS's leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has made efforts to rebrand the group as a nationalist force, skepticism persists regarding its commitment to moderation. The international community's challenge will be navigating these complexities while ensuring that Syria does not become a breeding ground for extremist ideologies.

Among the most notable beneficiaries of Assad's downfall is Israel. For years, Syria under Assad was a critical ally of Iran, providing a land corridor for Tehran to supply Hezbollah and other proxies. Assad's fall disrupts this axis, significantly weakening Iran's regional influence and its ability to project power. For Israel, this is a major strategic win.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hailed Assad's ouster as a vindication of Israel's efforts to counter Iran and Hezbollah. The chaos in Syria has allowed Israel to strengthen its position in the Golan Heights and ensure that hostile forces do not establish footholds near its borders. However, the rise of non-state actors like HTS could pose new challenges for Israel in the long term, as these groups often harbor anti-Israel sentiments despite their opposition to Iran.

Iran's role as one of the biggest losers in the aftermath of Assad's fall cannot be overstated. For decades, Syria was a cornerstone of Iran's "Axis of Resistance," a network of alliances designed to counter Israeli and Western influence. Tehran invested heavily in propping up Assad's regime, spending billions of dollars and deploying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and allied militias.

The collapse of Assad's regime has disrupted Iran's strategic ambitions. Without a reliable ally in Damascus, Tehran's ability to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine is significantly curtailed. This weakening of Iran's regional architecture presents an opportunity for its rivals, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to assert their influence in a reshaped Middle Eastern order.

Turkey's role in Syria has been complex and multifaceted. President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an's support for Syrian opposition groups was driven by both ideological alignment and geopolitical calculus, particularly his opposition to Kurdish autonomy along Turkey's borders. Assad's downfall offers Turkey a chance to consolidate its influence in northern Syria, curb Kurdish separatist ambitions, and position itself as a key player in the country's reconstruction.

Moreover, Turkish businesses stand to benefit from the rebuilding of Syria, potentially reaping economic rewards from Ankara's strategic investments. However, Turkey's involvement also carries risks, as the volatile situation in Syria could spill over into Turkish territory or complicate its relations with Western allies.

The power vacuum created by Assad's fall has amplified the role of non-state actors in the Middle East. Groups like HTS, which now control significant territory in Syria, highlight the declining authority of traditional state actors. This phenomenon is not unique to Syria; similar dynamics are evident in Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, where militant groups wield influence rivaling that of national governments.
While some non-state actors may seek to establish local governance structures, others could exploit the chaos to pursue extremist agendas. The international community faces the dual challenge of preventing Syria from becoming a hub for terrorism while fostering conditions for inclusive political solutions. The proliferation of non-state actors underscores the need for innovative approaches to Middle Eastern geopolitics, where traditional state-centric frameworks may no longer suffice.

The ramifications of Assad's fall are not confined to the Middle East. For countries in South Asia, including Bangladesh, the Syrian crisis serves as a cautionary tale of the dangers of prolonged conflict and external intervention. The displacement of millions of Syrians underscores the human cost of war, a lesson that resonates in a region grappling with its own challenges of governance, sectarian tensions, and political instability.

Bangladesh, which has earned global recognition for its humanitarian response to the Rohingya crisis, can draw parallels between the plight of Syrian refugees and its own experiences. The international community's fragmented approach to Syria highlights the importance of coordinated action in addressing humanitarian crises. South Asia's role in advocating for peace and stability in conflict zones can be a powerful example of regional cooperation.

The fall of Assad invites deeper philosophical reflections on the nature of power, resistance, and change. History teaches us that regimes built on oppression and violence are inherently unstable, yet their collapse often gives rise to new forms of conflict and suffering. The Middle East's trajectory over the past century is a testament to this cyclical pattern, where the downfall of one power structure often paves the way for another.

For Syria, the path forward will require not only political reform but also a reckoning with the legacies of its past. Rebuilding trust among its diverse communities, addressing the root causes of conflict, and fostering inclusive governance will be essential for breaking the cycle of violence. The international community, too, must reflect on its role in perpetuating or mitigating these cycles, recognizing that interventions driven by short-term interests often exacerbate long-term instability.

Assad's fall is not merely the end of an era for Syria but a pivotal moment for the Middle East and beyond. It has reshaped alliances, weakened traditional power structures, and highlighted the growing influence of non-state actors. For Israel, Turkey, and other regional players, the opportunities are significant, but so are the risks.

As the region recalibrates, the world must remain engaged in supporting Syria's transition while addressing the broader implications of this seismic shift. For South Asia, the lessons of Syria underscore the importance of resilience, regional cooperation, and proactive diplomacy in navigating an increasingly interconnected and volatile world. In the end, the fall of Assad serves as both a warning and a call to action, reminding us that the quest for stability and justice is a shared responsibility that transcends borders.

The writer is a postgraduate student in Autonomous Vehicle Engineering at the University of Naples Federico II, Italy.  


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