Can we expose Houthi Attacks in the Red Sea?

Since late 2023, the Houthi rebel movement in Yemen has waged a relentless missile and drone campaign targeting commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea, a vital maritime chokepoint. Initially sporadic, these strikes rapidly escalated into a sustained barrage endangering one of the worlds busiest shipping lanes. While the Houthis initially claimed solidarity with Palestinians facing Israeli bombardment in Gaza, the persistent attacks and mounting economic disruption revealed more complex motivations.

The November 19, 2023 seizure of the Israel-affiliated Galaxy Leader cargo ship marked a dramatic Houthi escalation, prompting the U.S. to establish the 20-nation Operation Prosperity Guardian maritime coalition in mid-December to deter and degrade the rebels anti-shipping capabilities. However, the Houthis persisted undeterred, continuing strikes despite the international presence. By early 2024, major firms like BP, Shell, and Trafigura suspended Red Sea transits due to heightened risks and costs.

In mid-January 2024, the U.S. and U.K. launched airstrikes under Operation Poseidon Archer targeting Houthi missile sites, radars, and infrastructure in Yemen. Initially billed as "one-off," it rapidly escalated into near-daily bombardment with over 230 sites struck by late February. On February 18, a Houthi strike forced the U.K. vessel M/K Rubymars crew to abandon ship after sustaining damage, leaving it adrift leaking oil - underscoring grave environmental risks.
As attacks persisted with mounting humanitarian and economic tolls, international divisions emerged over the response. Some advocated continued diplomacy and negotiation while others called for significant military escalation against the Houthis or even strikes on Iranian backers. With no clear resolution, the crisis highlighted global trade route fragility and the challenges of non-state actors wielding sophisticated weaponry, throwing into stark relief complex regional rivalries and proxy wars ensnaring Yemen.

The Houthi movement (officially Ansar Allah) appears driven by multifaceted motivations. A primary driver is asserting control over maritime chokepoints to gain leverage, with Red Sea disruptions aiming to pressure intervention on favorable terms in Yemens conflict. Attacks also retaliate against the Saudi-led military intervention backing Yemens government against the rebels. Portraying themselves as resistance against foreign interference defending Palestinian rights, the Houthis likely seek regional support and expanded influence.

Iranian backing has allowed the Houthis to evolve tactics from initially seizing ships to increasingly employing advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles like the 400km-range Asef, cruise missiles like the 120km Al-Mandeb 2, drones, and uncrewed vessels. However, targeting infrastructure remains relatively limited, relying heavily on Iranian surveillance, coastal radars, and open-source data - with many strikes missing targets.

Impacts have reverberated regionally and globally. The Red Sea handles around 15% of global shipping traffic, so disruptions forced firms to re-route vessels causing delays, higher costs, and supply chain issues across automotive, energy, logistics and retail sectors. The attacks exacerbated regional tensions, raised escalation risks, and exposed chokepoint vulnerabilities with potential energy security implications if vital trade routes face disruptions.

The crisis is rooted in Yemens conflict since the 2014 Houthi takeover of Sanaa and interventions by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran. The Saudi-led coalition campaign against the Houthis prolonged the devastating conflict fueling humanitarian suffering and regional tensions. While Tehrans level of direct control over Houthi operations is debated, Iranian arms, training and funding clearly bolstered rebel capabilities.

Intersecting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the Houthis Palestinian solidarity claim layered in more actors. Yemens fragmentation and the internationally recognized governments internal divisions through the new Presidential Leadership Council also complicated matters.

Internationally, the U.S.-led Operation Prosperity Guardian aimed to deter and degrade Houthi maritime attacks but failed to halt them, prompting strategy reassessment calls. U.S.-U.K. strikes under Operation Poseidon Archer destroyed over 100 Houthi missiles and launchers by February but the barrage persisted. Diplomatically, the U.N. envoy announced a roadmap with calls for nationwide ceasefire, public salary payments, oil export resumption and opening Sanaa airport/Hudaydah port - but made little headway amid Red Sea escalations.

As the protracted crisis drags on, calls grew in the U.S. and U.K. for further military escalation against the Houthis, potentially even supporting Yemeni government ground operations - which some argue is the only way to compel the rebels to cease maritime attacks. However, the situation underscores an urgent need for a comprehensive multilateral approach addressing root causes while safeguarding vital maritime interests.

Reinvigorated diplomacy towards a durable Yemen political settlement is critical, addressing grievances of all parties. In tandem, the international community must strengthen maritime security protocols, enhance intelligence sharing, and implement robust deterrents against future disruptions to the global maritime commons from non-state actors pursuing their objectives through force.

The writer is a political analyst based in Dhaka and working as a researcher at the KRF Center for Bangladesh and Global Affairs (CBGA)