Low-pressure in Bay; may turn into cyclone within 48hrs

A well-marked low-pressure system over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal could intensify into a cyclonic storm within the next 48 hours, raising the prospect of widespread rainfall across the country from October 27 or 28, according to the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT).

In a forecast issued on Saturday, BWOT said the system could strengthen progressively over the next three to four days. It is expected to develop into a depression within six to 12 hours, followed by a deep depression over the subsequent 24 to 36 hours, before potentially becoming a cyclonic storm within 48 hours.

The India Meteorological Department has also forecast that the system could intensify into a cyclonic storm by October 26 and move towards the north Andhra Pradesh and adjoining south Odisha coasts.

BWOT said the system currently has maximum sustained winds of around 35 kilometres per hour within a 100-kilometre radius of its centre, with gusts reaching up to 45 kilometres per hour.

The central Bay of Bengal and adjoining waters are gradually becoming rougher as the system gains strength.

Although no official warning signal had been issued for Bangladesh's maritime ports at the time of BWOT's bulletin, the organisation cautioned that warnings could follow as the system develops.

Fishing boats and trawlers have been advised to avoid venturing more than 150 kilometres offshore and to remain close to the coast until further instructions are issued.

According to BWOT's forecast, the system may initially move southward and southeastward over the next 24 to 36 hours before gradually turning westward as it intensifies.

It could reach its peak strength over the west-central and adjoining southwestern Bay of Bengal.

The system may cross the coast near northern Andhra Pradesh or adjoining southern Odisha around October 28, BWOT said. The organisation added that there was no clear indication at this stage of a direct hit on Bangladesh or major destruction along its coast.

However, the system's eventual intensity, trajectory and landfall location remain subject to change as meteorological observations are updated.

Even if the system moves towards the Indian coast, its indirect effects could bring substantial rainfall to Bangladesh.

BWOT forecast that a broad rain system could become active across the country from October 27 or 28 and continue through November 1.

The divisions of Barishal, Khulna, Rajshahi, Rangpur, Mymensingh and Dhaka could receive comparatively heavier rainfall. Chattogram and Sylhet may also experience rain, although accumulations there could be lower, according to the forecast.

Heavy to very heavy rainfall is also possible in parts of India as the system approaches and crosses the eastern coast.

The developing system is being monitored as it moves through the Bay of Bengal. Forecasts of its strength, movement and potential impacts may change as it develops.

Residents in coastal areas, fishermen and maritime operators should follow the latest advisories issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department and other relevant authorities rather than relying solely on preliminary projections.

While a direct cyclone strike on Bangladesh is not currently indicated in BWOT's assessment, the possibility of widespread rain means the system could still affect the country in the coming days.