Informal deals could upset electoral calculations

The BNP, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, National Citizen Party (NCP) and other political parties are preparing to contest the upcoming local government elections separately. But behind-the-scenes understandings could reshape local contests, complicate candidate selection and influence electoral outcomes.

With formal alliances off the table, parties may still strike local-level deals to avoid splitting votes or to challenge the ruling BNP, which has an extensive grassroots network.

Party leaders say candidates will be chosen based on local popularity, grassroots support and organisational strength. Yet their willingness to consider informal arrangements leaves room for political bargaining beyond declared party positions.

Moazzem Hossain Alal, an adviser to the Prime Minister, told The Daily Observer that the BNP had completed consultations with divisional organisational leaders and district- and upazila-level leaders over the upcoming elections.

Prime Minister and BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman has directed the party to nominate capable candidates with strong public support, Alal said. The leadership has also asked party leaders to consider support arrangements with other political groups where these could help a strong candidate emerge.

The Prime Minister has instructed the party to field a single candidate in each area, he added.
Given the BNP's extensive organisational reach, rival political forces could enter informal understandings to challenge it, even without a formal electoral alliance, Alal said.

He stressed that the local government elections would not be held under party symbols. The BNP wants the polls to take place in a festive atmosphere, with candidates enjoying local support elected as public representatives.

Ruling party Chief Whip Nurul Islam Moni said the BNP would seek to field one candidate in each union through coordination among grassroots leaders and activists.

He said the electoral process  
must remain free from interference and that candidates with genuine public support should win. Asked how the party would respond if anyone defied grassroots decisions and contested independently, Moni said the party would decide on the matter, adding that no discussion had yet taken place on the issue.

Alliances dissolve, local deals remain
Jamaat-e-Islami Secretary General Mia Golam Parwar told The Daily Observer that the 11-party alliance had been formed for the national parliamentary election, not for other polls.

The alliance's top leaders had recently decided that member parties would contest the local government elections separately, he said.

Biplobi Workers Party General Secretary Saiful Huq also ruled out contesting the elections under an alliance banner.
“We will contest the elections independently, and we have already started the candidate selection process,” he told The Daily Observer.

However, he said local-level understandings with other political groups remained possible, depending on the circumstances in individual constituencies.

The distinction between formal alliances and informal arrangements could prove significant. Parties may contest under their own banners while coordinating support locally, leaving voters with a contest shaped as much by negotiations behind closed doors as by public campaign commitments.

Rebel candidates pose BNP challenge
Political observers say candidate selection could become a major test for the BNP, particularly in areas where several leaders compete for the same nomination.

Denied candidates may enter the race as rebels, splitting party votes and turning internal rivalries into electoral liabilities. Personal influence, local popularity and competing grassroots networks could further complicate the party's efforts to enforce a single-candidate strategy.

Dr Md Naim Akhtar Siddiqui, a professor of political science at Jagannath University, told The Daily Observer that parties were likely to field their own candidates despite the absence of party symbols.

He identified rebel candidates as a potential challenge for the BNP. Informal understandings among rival political forces could also emerge against the party because of its extensive grassroots organisation, he said.

Such local arrangements could influence the results, he added.

The BNP's stated aim of fielding one candidate in each area therefore faces two distinct tests: managing internal competition and navigating local political calculations. A failure to contain either could complicate its electoral strategy.

Election timetable shifts
Meanwhile, the Election Commission has decided to hold the upcoming Union Parishad (UP) elections in five phases, with the first phase scheduled for January 21 next year.

The commission initially announced a tentative plan on September 14 to hold the elections in seven phases, beginning on November 12. But at a meeting with relevant ministries and government offices on September 17, officials raised difficulties with holding the polls in November and December. The commission said it would finalise the schedule after further discussions.

As the elections approach, candidate selection, grassroots influence and local political bargains are set to shape the contests. Although parties intend to compete separately, the absence of formal alliances does not rule out cooperation on the ground. The decisive calculations may take place not only on the campaign trail but also in negotiations over who contests�"and who steps aside.