Our Problem Is Fuel, Not Power Plants

We have the machines. We just can't turn them on. Let me tell you something that might surprise you. Bangladesh has enough power plants. Actually, we have more than enough. Our installed capacity is over 32,000 megawatts. But our peak demand is only about 18,000 megawatts. On paper, we should have electricity coming out of our ears. So why are the lights going off? Here's the truth nobody wants to say out loud: we can't afford to buy the fuel to run our own power plants.

The Real Story behind the Blackouts
Last month, a floating LNG terminal off Cox's Bazar had an accident. Just one accident. Gas supply dropped by 17 per cent. And suddenly, load shedding hit 3,000 megawatts. That's not a power plant problem. That's a fuel problem.

Fifteen years ago, I sat in an office in Banani and built a spreadsheet for Total Gaz. My job was simple: calculate how much heavy furnace oil Bangladesh would need to import over the next decade. I did the math carefully. I included port storage, jetty discharge rates, everything.

What I didn't realise at twenty-something was that I wasn't calculating a business opportunity. I was calculating a bill. A bill that would come due every month, in dollars, for twenty years, in a country that doesn't have a steady way to earn dollars.

A Simple Way to Understand It
Imagine your neighbourhood gets water from big storage tanks. Over fifteen years, you've built 32 taps. But you only need 18 taps. On paper, you're rich with taps. But here's the catch: your tanks aren't filled by rain. They're filled by a tanker. And that tanker must be paid in dollars. Every single tap comes with a foreign currency bill.

The new budget deserves real credit. Import duties on solar components are zero until 2031. Solar generation is tax-free until 2035. Our target is 20% renewable energy by 2030. But there's one problem: duty concessions on batteries expire in June 2028.

The Numbers Are Alarming
Let's look at the facts:
• In 2009-10, only 5% of our power sector depended on imports. Today? That number is 65%.
• The cost to generate electricity has gone up four times in the last fifteen years.
• Oil-fired power costs Tk27.5 per unit. In India, oil provides only 0.02% of their electricity.
• Power sector subsidies have jumped from Tk79 billion to Tk386 billion in just six years.
• We now owe power producers around Tk500 billion.

We're running our most expensive plants during peak hours, using borrowed dollars, and paying capacity charges for plants we can't even run.

There Is a Better Way
Solar and wind work differently. They're like rain falling on our own roofs. No tanker. No foreign invoice. The only problem? The rain falls mostly during the day, but we need power most at night.

That's where batteries come in. Batteries are like tanks that store rainwater. They don't create water. They just move free water to the hour when we'd otherwise burn our most expensive fuel.

On August 8, furnace oil plants ran at 3,100MW during evening peak. That's exactly what batteries are for�"storing daytime solar for nighttime use.

Rooppur Is a Well, Not a Tank
Rooppur nuclear plant changes the picture. It's not another tank. It's a well. A well is dug once, at great expense, and then gives steady water without a monthly bill at the gate. Unit 1 will connect to the grid this month at 300MW, reaching full 1,200MW in eight to ten months. 

For the first time, a large block of our electricity won't depend on LNG prices.

But let's be honest:
• The project costs Tk1.39 trillion, mostly in Russian credit. The dollar payments fall due whether the plant runs or not.
• Output comes slowly. Don't expect 2,400MW this winter.
• One unit of this size can trip the whole grid. We need more backup, not less.

What India Did That We Didn't
India isn't just building more solar. They're buying electricity differently. Last week, India finished a tender for 1,000MW of renewable energy with batteries. The price: INR5.25 per unit, about Tk7.5. Compare that to our Tk27.5 for oil. And the price is fixed for 25 years. No fuel risk at all.

India is buying a delivery promise, not a technology. Developers decide what mix of solar, wind, and batteries meets it. And India is backing this with storage obligations and transmission charge waivers. We should copy the method, not just the technology.

A Good Step, But One Mistake
The new budget deserves real credit. Import duties on solar components are zero until 2031. Solar generation is tax-free until 2035. Our target is 20% renewable energy by 2030. But there's one problem: duty concessions on batteries expire in June 2028.

That's exactly when our solar output will be large enough that we need storage to manage evening peak. And India is extending their support, not ending it. We've given rain a tax holiday but put an expiry date on the tank that stores it.

The Bottom Line
Fifteen years ago, I helped calculate how much oil this country would need to import. I'd rather the next generation of Bangladeshi engineers spend their twenties calculating something we can actually afford to pay for. We have the power plants. We cannot buy the fuel. That's the problem. And that's where we need to focus our attention.