The nation goes to the 13th parliamentary polls tomorrow to decide which political party will rule the country. On the same day, voters will also decide whether the elected government will carry out a set of political and economic reforms through a referendum by casting 'yes' or 'no' votes.
The big question and grave concern still haunt everybody's mind whether the election will be free, fair, peaceful and acceptable. However, banning the country's one of the largest parties, Awami League, and restricting its supporters from the election has already raised questions in and outside the country whether the polls will be inclusive and participatory. The CPD, a leading political, economic and human rights watchdog, already questioned the legitimacy of the election without the inclusiveness as about 35 percent voters belonging to Awami League will remain outside the election race.
These voters, however, remain a decisive factor in the national election. Though scattered and largely invisible after facing the wrath of the July 2024 uprising, they may surface on election day and their votes may decide the election results. If this happens, the trend could play a 'kingmaker' role in determining the final outcome of the election.
Conventional wisdom suggests that BNP is the frontrunner and the primary contender for power in the upcoming polls, as it currently enjoys nearly a 40 percent vote bank. The party has been revitalised following the return of its supremo, Tarique Rahman, to the country after 17 years, creating a sense of enthusiasm among BNP activists and voters of the BNP-led 10-party alliance. Another factor contributing to public sympathy is the death of Begum Khaleda Zia, BNP's former chairperson who is widely regarded as an uncompromising in her fight for democracy.
However, beneath the surface, all is not well for BNP. During its time in power, the party was riddled with corruption, with Bangladesh topping the global corruption index five times in a row, a stigma that continues to haunt the party. This issue is being widely discussed among voters and is affecting the electoral landscape. Moreover, the presence of rebel candidates is likely to weaken BNP's prospects in at least 50 constituencies. However, in an address to the nation, Tarique Rahman has apologized for the mistakes during BNP's previous tenures. Many believe such apology from the party chief may draw general sympathy.
Taking advantage of corruption and extortion allegations against BNP, Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, which leads the 11-party alliance, has stepped up its election campaigns across the country. Jamaat, known for its disciplined rank and file and relatively untainted image regarding corruption and extortion, has built a favourable reputation among voters. Furthermore, its digital campaign has drawn significant support from the youth voters who prioritise 'performance' and 'discipline' over rhetoric.
Yet Jamaat carries a heavy historical stigma for its role during the 1971 Liberation War, when it collaborated with the then Pakistan occupation army, which committed genocide, crimes against humanity, killing several million Bangladeshis and raping hundreds of thousands of women. This remains a poignant question for today's voters. Many voters still believe a party that opposed the independence of the country should not be elected to run the country with its religion based ideology.
However, the landslide victories of Jamaat's student wing, Chhatra Shibir, in almost all public university student union elections across the country have given a major boost to the election prospect of Jamaat. This signals a significant shift in the mindset of young and first-time voters ahead of the national polls.
Whatever is the prospect of parties and outcome of the election, people want a free, fair and peaceful poll. It depends mainly on the bold and neutral role of the Election Commission, unbiased stance of the state administration and strict vigilance of the army and law enforcing agencies. The role of the political parties participating in the election is also vital in avoiding violence and use of muscle power and illegal money.
