The decision of Islami Andolan Bangladesh (IAB) to disassociate from Jamaat-e-Islami led 11-party Islamic block and to contest the upcoming national election independently has effectively ended efforts to bring Islamist votes under a single electoral platform, opening up a new and uncertain dynamic in the electoral field. Political analysts believe the fragmentation of the much-discussed "11-party electoral alliance" is likely to weaken Islamist parties collectively while strengthening the position of the BNP, widely seen as their principal electoral rival.
On Friday afternoon, Islami Andolan announced at a press conference at its central office in Purana Paltan that it would contest elections on its own symbol in 268 constituencies and support candidates of preferred parties in the remaining 32 seats. As a result, the party will remain electorally active in all 300 constituencies. Observers say this announcement marks the definitive collapse of the long-cherished plan to consolidate Islamist votes into a single "one-box" strategy. Instead, Islamist votes now appear clearly divided into three separate streams, the electoral consequences of which will only become clear on polling day.
The announcement came just a day after Jamaat-e-Islami and leaders of 10 allied parties formally declared seat-sharing arrangements in 253 constituencies. They had initially left 47 seats open for Islami Andolan, but with talks breaking down, Jamaat has indicated that candidates will now be fielded in those constituencies as well. The breakdown has, in effect, redrawn the map of Islamist politics ahead of the election.
Political analysts note that Islamist forces are now split into three distinct blocs. One is the Jamaat-led 10-party electoral alliance, which includes five Islamist parties. Another is Islami Andolan, led by the Chormonai Pir, which has opted for an independent electoral path. The third consists of three Islamist parties aligned with the BNP-led simultaneous movement, including one registered and two unregistered parties. According to informed sources, this division is not merely tactical but reflects deeper disagreements over leadership, ideology and long-standing mistrust that have resurfaced as elections draw closer.
At the heart of the split lies a prolonged dispute over seat allocation. Islami Andolan had initially sought 70 to 80 constituencies, while Jamaat's leadership was determined to keep the party's share within 30 to 35 seats, a position endorsed by its central executive council. Although Jamaat later agreed to increase the offer to 40 and then 45 seats, Islami Andolan rejected the proposals. This prompted Jamaat's policymakers to question whether the demands were purely electoral or indicative of a broader political calculation. After analysing vote-share data and surveys, Jamaat eventually concluded that election without Islami Andolan would be electorally less risky.
Islami Andolan, on the other hand, attempted to explore alternative electoral alignments but failed to forge a viable front.
Sources say internal differences also existed within the party, with a significant faction opposing continued alliance with Jamaat despite the party ameer and several senior leaders favouring unity. Notably, Islami Andolan's ameer, Syed Muhammad Rezaul Karim, known as Charmonair Peer and senior nayeb e ameer Syed Muhammad Faizul Karim were absent from Friday's IAB press conference, having left Dhaka a day earlier. The briefing was addressed by the party's senior joint secretary general and spokesperson, Gazi Ataur Rahman.
Gazi Ataur Rahman alleged that Islami Andolan had faced neglect and disrespect within Jamaat's alliance, particularly on questions of principle and fairness. While acknowledging Jamaat-e-Islami as a major Islamic political force, he said Islami Andolan was not ideologically or morally weaker than any other party.
In response, Advocate Ehsanul Mahbub Zubair, Assistant Secretary General of Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, said "No party was disrespected or pressured during seat-sharing and political discussions. Decisions were made with transparency, realism, and mutual respect. Since some matters remained unresolved even after nomination submissions, discussions continued. The liaison committee made decisions based on multiple survey analyses, taking into account ground realities, party strength, candidate acceptability, and the status of rival parties."
Analysts widely believe that the primary beneficiary of this split will be the BNP. Jahangirnagar University professor of Government and Politics and political analyst Dr Shamsul Alam said Islamist parties have historically commanded a limited share of the national vote. At present, he noted, Jamaat has the largest vote bank among Islamist parties. However, Islami Andolan argues that its participation in every national and local elections over the past 17 years has helped it build a broader grassroots base than Jamaat.
Dr Alam pointed out that Jamaat's own survey analyses suggest Islami Andolan is unlikely to secure votes in proportion to the number of seats it demanded. "Essentially, both parties sought to assert dominance within the alliance, and that competition ultimately led to the split," he said. More importantly, he added, since the Jamaat-led alliance is viewed as BNP's main competitor in the national election, every new fracture within the Islamist camp directly benefits BNP. "Islamist parties may mobilise voters by appealing to religion, but BNP's support base cuts across class, profession and ideology. Even if Islamist votes are divided into three boxes, BNP's votes largely remain in one," he observed.
The broader realignment is further complicated by Islamist parties that have entered electoral understandings with BNP. Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh, for example, has received BNP backing in four constituencies, while unregistered Islamist groups have also joined seat-sharing arrangements. In Jashore-5 (Monirampur), BNP has nominated Mufti Rashid bin Wakkas of an unregistered Jamiat faction, who is contesting with the BNP symbol.
Jamaat, meanwhile, views the inclusion of parties such as the National Citizen Party (NCP), led by figures from the July mass uprising, and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of veteran politician and former BNP minister Oli Ahmed as strategic gains that help counter allegations of heading a narrowly "hardline" alliance. Observers also believe Jamaat may rely on Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, led by Maulana Mamunul Haque, to mobilise support among Qawmi madrasa-based voters, where his personal influence remains significant.
As campaigning intensifies, analysts suggest the growing distance between Islami Andolan and other Islamist groups-particularly those aligned with BNP-could further sharpen anti-Jamaat sentiment in certain constituencies. For now, the ambition of unifying Islamist votes has clearly given way to a three-way contest. Whether Jamaat's organisational strength, Islami Andolan's grassroots presence or BNP's broad-based alliances will prove decisive remains one of the central questions of the results of the 13th Jatiya Sangshad election scheduled on February 12.
