The World Bank (WB) has projected that Bangladesh's GDP will grow by 4.6 per cent in the current fiscal year and could rise to 6.1 per cent in 2026-27, according to the January edition of its Global Economic Prospects.
The Bank expects an increase in consumer spending, a decline in inflationary pressures, and a reduction in political uncertainty if the national election is held early next year. Structural reforms by the incoming government are also expected to strengthen the industrial sector, boosting investment and government spending.
However, the World Bank highlighted some risks to growth, including tightened money supply, which has reduced credit flow to the private sector and hindered trade expansion. It also noted that US counter-tariffs may pose challenges to Bangladesh's international trade.
The report indicates that Bhutan is expected to lead South Asia in GDP growth at 7.3 per cent, followed by India at 6.5 per cent. Other regional forecasts include Sri Lanka at 3.5 per cent, Nepal at 2.1 per cent, and the Maldives at 3.9 per cent. No projections were provided for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) provided a provisional estimate for the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year (July-September), calculating GDP growth at 4.5 per cent, up from 2.58 per cent in the same period last year.
The World Bank expects global growth to remain broadly stable, at 2.6 per cent in 2026 and 2.7 per cent in 2027, supported by easing global financial conditions and fiscal expansion in major economies. Global inflation is projected to decline to 2.6 per cent in 2026, driven by a soft labor market and low energy prices. Growth is expected to strengthen in 2027 as trade flows normalize and policy uncertainty eases.
