Canada is bracing for a sharp increase in undocumented immigrants as a large number of temporary work permits expire, with Indians expected to account for nearly half of those affected, according to data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
Figures obtained by Mississauga-based immigration consultant Kanwar Seirah show that about 1.05 million work permits expired by the end of 2025, while a further 927,000 are due to expire in 2026.
The data, shared with the Hindustan Times, highlights the scale of a looming immigration challenge as thousands of workers face the prospect of losing legal status.
Under Canadian law, individuals whose work permits expire become undocumented unless they secure another visa or transition to permanent residency.
However, such pathways have narrowed as the federal government tightens immigration rules, particularly for temporary foreign workers and international students, while also introducing stricter measures to manage asylum claims.
Seirah warned that Canada has never experienced such a high volume of people falling out of legal status.
He noted that nearly 315,000 permits are set to expire in the first quarter of 2026 alone, creating what he described as a bottleneck in the immigration system. By comparison, more than 291,000 permits expired in the final quarter of 2025.
He estimates that by mid-2026, at least two million people could be living in Canada without legal status, with Indians making up around half of that number.
Seirah described the estimate as conservative, pointing out that tens of thousands of study permits will also expire during this period and that many asylum applications are likely to be rejected.
The growing undocumented population is already having visible social consequences in parts of the Greater Toronto Area, including Brampton and Caledon.
Reports indicate the emergence of tent encampments in wooded areas, where some undocumented migrants are living.
Brampton-based journalist Nitin Chopra, who has documented one such encampment, said there is anecdotal evidence that some out-of-status immigrants from India are working for cash.
He also noted reports of informal operators setting up services linked to marriages of convenience.
Meanwhile, advocacy groups are stepping up pressure on authorities to address the situation. Organisations such as the Naujawan Support Network, which campaigns for migrant workers’ rights, are planning protests in January to draw attention to the growing crisis caused by expiring permits.
Toronto-based activist Bikramjit Singh said the group is seeking to mobilise public support for reforms that would offer legal pathways for temporary workers and students to remain in Canada.
The Network’s campaign slogan, “Good enough to work, good enough to stay,” reflects its call for a more inclusive immigration policy amid mounting concerns over the fate of hundreds of thousands of migrants.
