As the 13th National Parliamentary Election draws closer, country's political landscape is becoming increasingly heated. The main points of contention - the referendum proposal and the implementation of the July Charter - remain unresolved, deepening divisions among political parties and creating uncertainty about the path forward. It may pose fresh crisis to the upcoming JS polls in February.
The interim government had given political parties a one-week deadline to reach a "unified decision" through dialogue. However, that deadline expired on Monday without any political consensus.
According to political analysts, it is to be seen what the government now takes the next step. Based on the recommendations of the National Consensus Commission, the government is expected to make the final call. Analysts warn that if a political or constitutional crisis emerges over the referendum or the July Charter, who will take the responsibility.
On November 3, the government issued an official statement declaring that there would be no further initiative from the government for new talks. It added that if the parties failed to reach a consensus within the given time, the interim government would proceed to make its own decision on the referendum and the July Charter.
Despite limited talks and a series of counter-statements between rival parties last week, no meaningful agreement was reached.
The National Consensus Commission (NCC) has reportedly submitted two alternative proposals to the government regarding constitutional reform and implementation of the July Charter.
Dr. Asif Mohammad Shahan, Professor of Development Studies at the University of Dhaka, told The Daily Observer, "The solution must come from within these two options. The government now has to decide. However, if a new format for the referendum is proposed, it might not be acceptable to all political parties."
Political scientist Professor Dilara Chowdhury expressed concerns that the entire process could turn out to be a "deceptive exercise." "If the referendum does not take place before the election, the election will have to be held under the 1972 Constitution, which does not contain provisions for a referendum," she explained.
"In that case, the BNP might reject the process, claiming that the referendum itself is unconstitutional. That's where the real complexity lies."
She added that the discrepancy between the Constitution and the July Charter is widening political uncertainty, and warned that "without responsible political behavior, this uncertainty could escalate into confrontation."
Professor Shahan also cautioned that failure to reach a compromise could push some parties to demand an election delay - a move unlikely to be accepted by others.
"If some parties boycott or reject the polls, the risk of street conflict will increase," he said.
Professor Chowdhury noted that Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami has already announced a "March to Dhaka" program, and warned that if the BNP responds with a counter-program, "clashes could erupt, potentially derailing the election schedule."
Political analysts unanimously agree that dialogue and mutual compromise are the only viable routes to avoid a crisis.
