Confidence that China has already reached or will soon reach its peak in carbon dioxide emissions has dropped sharply, according to a new survey of climate experts released Thursday.
The annual poll of nearly 70 specialists, conducted by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the International Society for Energy Transition Studies, found that most now expect China’s emissions to peak between 2026 and 2030 — with 2028 seen as the most likely year.
Last year, almost half of respondents believed China had already peaked or would do so by 2025. But only around 20 percent still hold that view.
The shift in expectations follows China’s release of its first numerical emissions reduction targets earlier this year, which pledged to cut greenhouse gases by 7–10 percent within a decade. However, the plan did not specify a baseline year, creating uncertainty about the starting point for those cuts and the timing of the emissions peak.
As the world’s largest emitter, China’s climate trajectory is under intense international scrutiny. While a peak would mean emissions stop rising, experts stress that how quickly they decline afterward will be equally important.
China also submitted its official climate roadmap this week, outlining new 2035 goals. Many analysts view the 7–10 percent target as modest, though most expect Beijing to meet and slightly surpass it.
The findings come just ahead of the COP climate summit in Brazil, where several major emitters have yet to submit their own 2035 climate plans.
