Securing our skyline

Bangladesh enters a decade where air threats are more diverse, faster, and cheaper to deploy. Instability along the Myanmar frontier, faster great-power competition in the Bay of Bengal, and the mass proliferation of drones and cruise missiles are converging over our trade lanes, coastal infrastructure, and population centers.The planned purchase of 20 J-10CE fighters by 2027, financed over ten years, is a prudent bridge. To turn that bridge into durable stability, we should pair near-term recapitalization with three pillars: (i) a balanced fighter mix that raises deterrence and availability, (ii) a sovereign UCAV ecosystem for affordable mass and persistence, and (iii) a layered national 'sky shield' that detects, disrupts, and defeats aerial threats by 2030.

A three-squadron mix meets the realities of cost, schedule, and diplomacy: one squadron of Chengdu J-20 for long-range stealth air dominance; one squadron of Shenyang J-35 (export-oriented FC-31 family) for stealth multirole strike with maritime reach; and one squadron of KAI KF-21 Boramae for high-availability QRA and daily patrols. The J-10CE buy functions as a bridge-widening training pipelines, easing logistics, and giving time to absorb stealth operations. This mix deliberately diversifies partners and leaves headroom to integrate sensors and munitions from multiple sources, aligning security with diplomacy.

Bangladesh should keep optionality open with partner-friendly sixth-generation ecosystems. The Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)also called Tempest, led by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japanis currently the most open to structured partner onboarding and emphasizes manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T), advanced mission systems (sensors, data fusion, electronic warfare), and next-generation propulsion. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), a joint effort by France, Germany, and Spainis powerful but still evolving; engagement should be paced to the programme's governance stability and work-share clarity. In the United States, the Air Force's Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and the Navy's follow-on F/A-XX initiatives are more restricted, yet practical on-ramps exist via collaborative combat aircraft (CCA)often called loyal-wingman dronesalong with shared data standards, interoperability labs, and training exchanges. These avenues are valuable for doctrine, tactics, and integration skills even if access to the prime manned platform is not available.

Bangladesh cannot afford a lost decade in the air. Close the J-10CE package and flood the force with simulators, instructor cadres, and rigorous syllabi so sortie rates rise without burning airframe life or budgets. In parallel negotiate one stealth squadron each of J-20 and J-35 with deliveries phased from 2027 to 2030, and lock KF-21 slots to achieve initial operational capability by 2030. Mass and persistence come from UCAVs; license-build a MALE platform from day one, mandate sovereign mission software and encrypted links, and field modular payloads for maritime interdiction and suppression of enemy air defenses. 

Türkiye has signaled readiness for joint drone production in Bangladesh, a timely industrial on-ramp; formalize co-production, align export controls and intellectual property, and stand-up mixed engineering teams in Dhaka and Chattogram to build a supplier base in composites, avionics, and power systems. Knit an automatic sky shield with distributed RF sensing and AI-assisted EO/IR fused into one national air picture, use soft-kill first, and layer SHORAD and medium-range interceptors around ports, airbases, power nodes, and the Dhaka-Chattogram corridor. Professionalize sustainment with performance-based logistics, power-by-the-hour engines, regional depots, a mission-data lab, an EW schoolhouse, a cyber red team, and quiet GCAP dialogues. Budget totals $12-$15B, averaging $1.2-$1.5B per year and peaking near $1.8B, with $0.15-$0.20B for munitions and $0.075-$0.10B for simulators and ranges.

Bangladesh's second decade must translate ambition into scalable effects and sovereign industry. Finish three frontline stealth-era squadrons, expand UCAV regiments for routine maritime and border persistence, and ready basing, C2, maintenance, and weapons pipelines to operate up to 500,5thand 6th generation fighters in wartime surge. By the late 2030s, assemble and manufacture latest UCAVs and fifth and sixth generation fighters under license or co-development, localizing composites, radar-absorbent materials, AESA integration, mission computers, hydraulics, electrics, and engine sustainment, with turbofan core co-development targeting hot-section manufacture by 2045. Field tens of thousands of AI-based attritable UCAVs for coastline and deep-sea policing with swappable ISR, electronic attack, and precision-strike payloads. Equip an AI-enabled anti-missile, anti-drone, and anti-stealth shield sized for at least 6 months of continuous nationwide protection without foreign resupply.

Adopt an annual aviation envelope of $2-3B dollars with surge to about $4.0B for peaks. In a typical year, allocate roughly $0.7-1.0B to fleet sustainment, $0.6-0.9B to UCAV mass production and autonomy stacks, $0.4-0.7B to munitions and energetics, $0.2-0.3B to sky-shield expansion, $0.1-0.2B to industrialization and turbofan co-development, and $0.1-0.2B to training, ranges, and operational experimentation. Tie all contracts to hard readiness metrics, sovereign data rights, open interfaces, and independent testing. The outcome is credible deterrence, domestic industrial depth, and a skyline too costly to threaten by 2045.