The world is moving rapidly toward an uncertain energy future. A recent warning from the International Energy Agency (IEA), a body that closely monitors global energy reserves, has rung alarm bells. According to its latest report, the onshore oil and gas reserves that have powered the modern economy for decades are depleting at an alarming rate. The agency noted that of the roughly 15,000 onshore oil and gas fields across the world, about 90 percent are in sharp decline. Extraction has continued relentlessly for decades and the reserves are now approaching exhaustion.
This global development carries deep implications. The report estimates that daily production of oil has fallen short around 5.5 million barrels and natural gas has fallen short between 18 thousand crore and 27 thousand crore cubic meters. Such shortfalls will inevitably lead to volatility in international energy markets. As IEA's Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned"the world still relies heavily on oil and gas. But if onshore reserves continue to run dry, the gap cannot be easily filled. Offshore exploration is excessively expensive and time-consuming while renewable energy, though progressing, has not yet reached the scale required to fulfill global demand.
This global warning is not just a distant concern for us rather it is a direct threat. We are totally reliable on domestic natural gas as the lifeblood of our economy. From power generation to industrial production, from household kitchens to fertilizer plants, gas has underpinned nearly every sector of our national life. But the reality is sobering.Our gas reserves are expected to last only about five more years, with projections that they could be exhausted entirely by 2030.
This is not mere speculation. The evidence is blatant. In 2017, we could produce around 2,700 million cubic feet of gas per day. Today, production has dropped to about 1,800 million cubic feet. This declining supply has forced the shutdown of power plants, slowed industrial activities and left households struggling with unreliable gas flow. In some areas, stoves stop and fail to light that shows a stark reminder that the comfort we once enjoyed is no longer guaranteed.
The alternative to domestic gas is imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). But LNG comes at a steep price. Locally produced gas costs about Tk. 3 per cubic meter while imported LNG costs around Tk. 55 which is nearly twenty-fold difference. This price disparity is not just a technical matter but it has profound consequences for our economy. Industries will face higher input costs that will make our products less competitive in the global market. Households will have to pay more for energy that will drive up the cost of living. Inflation, already a national concern, will only also worsen as energy costs ripple through every sector of the economy.
Indeed, we are already feeling the early tremors. Energy experts warn that without new discoveries, our growing reliance on LNG imports will strain public finances and burden consumers. The economic model that has supported industrial growth, export competitiveness and affordable living will come under immense pressure.
In this situation, the government has taken into consideration the looming crisis. Petrobangla and the Energy Division have initiated projects to drill and rehabilitate wells. Plans are underway for 100 new wells, along with workovers of 50 old ones. Of these, 31 old wells are being prioritized for rehabilitation, while the remaining are marked for exploration and development. The government also hopes that offshore exploration, though slow, may eventually yield results.
Yet, progress has been underwhelming. The drilling efforts have not produced significant breakthroughs so far. Offshore exploration, widely seen as the most promising frontier, remains stalled due to technical, financial and geopolitical challenges. Meanwhile, existing fields continue to deplete. Out of the country's 29 identified gas fields, only 20 remain in production. Fields in Bhola, Zakiganj and Kutubdia, among others, remain untapped because pipelines and infrastructure have not been developed. Meanwhile, production has been halted in five fields-Rupganj in Narayanganj, Chatak in Sylhet, Kamta in Gazipur, Feni and Sangu in Chattogram-despite having 661 billion cubic feet of gas, because they are not commercially viable.
Energy specialists are unequivocal in their warnings. It is predicted that after 2030, natural gas supplies will dwindle to such an extent that they will no longer be commercially usable. This means industries will be starved of affordable energy, households will pay more and the entire economy will suffer. The transition to LNG dependence will not just be costly-it will be destabilizing.
Ours is a deltaic country. Theoretically we should hold abundant natural resources. If the government can deliver on its plan to drill 100 wells within the next five years, the situation could improve significantly. But the challenge lies in execution. Announcements and plans are plentiful; successful outcomes are scarce.
Nations around the world are grappling with the twin challenges of declining fossil fuel reserves and the slow transformation to renewable energy. As the developed countries have greater access to technology and capital, this shift may be painful but manageable. But for developing nations like us, the stakes are far higher. Our industrial competitiveness, social stability and economic future are closely tied to cheap energy.
Several urgent steps are necessary:
" The government must ensure that plans for 100 wells are executed efficiently, transparently and without delay. Bureaucratic inertia and inefficiencies must be addressed.
" Fields that remain untapped due to the lack of pipelines or processing facilities must be prioritized. Infrastructure bottlenecks cannot be allowed to hold back national energy security.
" While gas will remain central for the near future, we must aggressively expand investment in renewables such as solar and wind. Small but steady contributions from these sources can reduce pressure on gas reserves.
" Cross-border energy trade-whether in electricity, LNG or renewables-could provide a safety net during supply shortages.
" Reducing wastage across industries, power plants and households is critical. Every cubic foot saved is a cubic foot gained.
We stand at a crossroads. The depletion of domestic gas reserves is no longer a distant possibility-it is an imminent reality. The choices we make today will determine whether we stumble into crisis or navigate toward resilience. The coming years will demand bold leadership, pragmatic decision-making and a willingness to invest in the future.
The warning from the IEA should not be taken lightly. The world's reserves are depleting and our reserves are depleting faster still. To secure our energy future, we must act with urgency, foresight and determination. If we fail to do so, the consequences like industrial slowdown, rising costs and social unrest-will be too severe to ignore.
The writer is a banker
