In recent weeks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and key voices in Washington have made it clear they want a Regime Change in Iran. Netanyahu has launched airstrikes, even hitting Iran's internal security sites, and has called on the Iranian people to rise up against their rulers. Meanwhile, in the U.S., both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, as well as former security officials, have joined the chorus, encouraging support for Iranians pushing for democratic change from within.
This growing pressure for a political shake-up in Tehran comes at a time when Iran is one of the most strategically important countries in Eurasia. It sits between the Caspian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, bordering Central Asia, the Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Caucasus. For more than 40 years, Iran's religious leaders have aligned the country closely with Russia and China while backing armed groups across the Middle East. If the current regime were to fall, it would cause major shifts across global politics, economics, and military affairs, bringing both opportunities and risks.
If a new, more West-friendly government took power in Tehran, it could break apart the longstanding partnership between Iran, Russia, and China. Since China launched its Belt and Road Initiative and Russia was hit with sanctions after occupying Crimea in 2014, Iran has become a key ally for both. Iran's location offers these countries a vital land route to avoid Western sanctions and keep trade flowing. For example, the International North-South Transport Corridor runs 7,200 kilometres from India to Russia through Iran, moving everything from weapons to banned oil.
Iran's southern ports, like Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, also give access to the Indian Ocean without having to pass through tight and vulnerable waterways like the Suez Canal. If a future Iranian government turned toward the West, it could cut off these secret trade routes, block illicit income sources, and leave Moscow and Beijing with more expensive and dangerous options.
One of the biggest global impacts of a Western-aligned Iran would be in the oil and gas markets. Every day, over 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage Iran has long controlled. With rising instability in other sea routes, like the Red Sea, due to attacks, a peaceful and cooperative Iran could ensure safe shipping through the Strait. That would calm global markets and open up new overland routes for oil and gas, especially from Central Asia to Europe and Asia.
Iran has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and is among the top three in oil reserves, but sanctions and strict state control have held back production. A more open economy could add millions of barrels of oil to global supply. Projects once blocked by Iran, such as pipelines from the Caspian to Europe or from Qatar to Turkey, could finally move ahead, reducing Europe's dependence on Russian energy.
This growing pressure for a political shake-up in Tehran comes at a time
when Iran is one of the most strategically important countries in
Eurasia. It sits between the Caspian Sea and the Strait of Hormuz,
bordering Central Asia, the Gulf, the Indian Ocean, and the Caucasus.
Iran's rugged landscape has made it the perfect base for its proxy wars. The Revolutionary Guard has backed groups like
Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and militias in Syria and Iraq. If a new government took over, it could start breaking down this network, shutting weapons stockpiles, cutting off funding, and weakening command structures.
This would greatly ease tensions with countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. It could also pave the way for joint naval patrols and regional security operations in areas like the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, where Iran's presence has long been disruptive.
Iran's location has always been one of its biggest strengths. A peaceful and cooperative Iran could use this to become a central player in regional trade. For example, improving rail links from Chabahar to Zahedan could connect India directly to Central Asia, bypassing both Pakistan and China's influence. This could cut shipping costs by nearly a third and create new trade corridors for democratic countries.
Cybersecurity in the region would also improve. There are reports that Iran-linked hackers have attacked infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel. A new government would build more trust and enable technical cooperation with the west.
Iran's reach goes beyond the Middle East, too. It has often stirred trouble using ethnic and religious ties, such as with Kurds, Baloch, and Azeris, to pressure neighbouring states. Iran's long border with Afghanistan, over 900 kilometres, is especially crucial. A future Iranian government working with the West could help rebuild Afghanistan, fight drug smuggling, and limit Taliban influence. New railway links from Herat into Iran could give Afghanistan better trade access, reducing its reliance on Pakistan's ports.
Changing Iran's political system won't be easy. A powerful group called the Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) controls a large chunk, possibly up to 40%, of the country's economy. Even if the religious leaders are pushed out, the IRGC could act independently, turning into regional warlords. That might lead to civil unrest or even internal war, causing people to flee into nearby regions like Nakhchivan (Azerbaijan), Dagestan (Russia), or eastern Turkey. This chaos could attract interference from Iran's neighbours, who might see a chance to expand their influence, further destabilising the region.
Iran is also incredibly diverse. It's home to Persians, Kurds, Arabs, Baloch, and Azeris, each with their own culture, language, and beliefs. Without a strong and inclusive national identity, the country could break apart along ethnic and religious lines after regime change. Other countries, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or Azerbaijan, might start supporting separatist groups, triggering new proxy wars inside Iran.
China wouldn't just sit back and watch if Iran shifted toward the West. It could respond with hybrid strategy to keep the new government weak and unstable. Diplomatically, China and Russia may also work to replace Iran's role in their regional strategies, for example, by strengthening ties with Turkey or by putting more focus on China's trade routes through Pakistan.
Iran's location makes it one of the most strategically important countries in the world. Its mountains and deserts make it hard to invade, its coasts give it power over vital sea routes, and its land corridors connect entire regions. These same features that make Iran hard to change are also why a successful transformation would reshape the global balance of power.
But military force alone won't bring about the change Western countries want. Past wars in Iraq and Libya have shown that regime change imposed from outside can tear a country apart. Any real transformation in Iran must come from within, guided by its own people, culture, and political movements. The West should help where it can, but it shouldn't try to control the process.
The stakes are enormous. Geography doesn't control Iran's future, but it does shape the battlefield where that future will be decided.
The writer is the Editor of geopolits.com
