Indian Ocean is the strategic and demographic hub of 21st century and Bay of Bengal is the important part of this geo-strategic configuration where Bangladesh is located on its apex. Under the Mughals, Bengal Subah rose to global prominence in textile manufacturing and shipbuilding. Its economy in 18th century was greater than the size of European Economy. Even during that period of time Dhaka was the vibrant city having a million people. As the geopolitical and economic power is shifting from West to East and from North to South, along with the rise of China and India, Bangladesh will automatically rise. It holds the key to the reestablishment of a long-dormant historical trade route between the two rising giants of 21st Century. Since the end of unipolar world and rise of China, her peers' competitors are trying to contain her in East and South China Sea as well as in Indian Ocean.
During the time of President Obama in 2011, US started its geopolitical move of pivoting in Asia. The formation of Quad (US, India, Japan and Australia), the idea of Indo-Pacific was containment geo-strategy to stranglehold China. In addition, building of around 180 military bases around East and South China Sea surfaced as potential tightening of the noose in case of crisis. In 2013, China came up with Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar in Bay of Bengal Region joined the BRI. China-Myanmar Economic Corridor brought China into Bay of Bengal (CMEC). The corridor has given China strategic relief. Bay of Bengal is part of Chinese historical trade route as such China no longer accepts Indian Ocean for Indians. China's other vertical expansion projects in Indian Ocean is China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, both Pakistan and Myanmar are going through instability threatening the potentials of economic corridors. China's expansion to Indian Ocean is of paramount importance hence the other alternatives is China-Afghanistan-Iran Economic Corridor. India's concern is about its Siliguri Corridor, in case of crisis, China might venture for China-Nepal-Bangladesh Economic Corridor leading to Bay of Bengal. China, Nepal Railway project is under serious study, (China's venture at Doklum-2017 and Nakula-2021 in India-China-Bhutantri-border and India-China border respectively which are close to Siliguri Corridor).
China is interested in investing in Teesta Project in Bangladesh near Siliguri Corridor as a BRI project. In case of desperate military situation between India and China, 22 KM Siliguri Corridor could be linked to potential China-Nepal-Bangladesh Economic Corridor. The Bay of Bengal is also within China's 'String of Pearls strategy' and India's 'Necklace of Diamond' strategy. As such, the Bay is turning into a hot spot of geopolitics and geo-strategy of regional and big powers of the world.
During the time of President Obama in 2011, US started its geopolitical
move of pivoting in Asia. The formation of Quad (US, India, Japan and
Australia), the idea of Indo-Pacific was containment geo-strategy to
stranglehold China. In addition, building of around 180 military bases
around East and South China Sea surfaced as potential tightening of the
noose in case of crisis. In 2013, China came up with Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI). Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar in Bay of
Bengal Region joined the BRI. China-Myanmar Economic Corridor brought
China into Bay of Bengal(CMEC).
In Myanmar both India and China are entering through Bay of Bengal to Rakhine (Myanmar) by their Kaladan Multi Modal Project and energy pipelines project respectively. The Rohingya issue has turned into a geopolitical issue now putting Bangladesh at the bay. US has recognized Rohingya atrocities as a genocide case. However, China stood for Myanmar in Security Council against even condemning the Rohingya atrocities. The Burma Act and relation with Aung San Suu Kyi led NLD now National Unity Government (NUG) is considered entry of US through Bay of Bengal to Myanmar. This incursion of world leading power around Bay of Bengal is discomforting to the regional powers.
As a result, we shall see more and more blue water navies in Bay of Bengal. Once calm water of Bay of Bengal is transforming into an area of interest and area of influence of world leading powers. Besides, all major powers are now courting with Arakan Army to secure their interest in Myanmar that has geo-strategic significance for Bangladesh also.
How Bangladesh should navigate in this geopolitical murky water? : Peaceful Indian Ocean in general and Bay of Bengal in particular is the key to the development and economic emancipation for Bangladesh. Smaller littoral countries here need rule based Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh is no exception. Bangladesh depends 90% of its business and commerce through Bay of Bengal. The tension here could seriously affect Bangladesh and dismantle her dream to become a Mid-Income country. The options available to Bangladesh are limited:
(a) Bangladesh should maintain a balanced approach in dealing with big powers. It should identify the red lines of regional and leading powers and avoid crossing those and extract reward for maintaining the 'NOGO' areas.
(b) Bangladesh should understand the limit of its strategic autonomy in decision making in the geopolitical murky water.
(c) It should follow the Singapore model, the 'poisonous shrimp strategy' the blending of hard and soft power. Maintaining strict neutrality, a nation is capable of navigating complex geopolitical landscape and emerging as a significant power in the region.
(d) Institutions and ministries should develop India and China desks including experts on these regional powers and neighborhood that would be of immense value in decision making.
(e) Bangladesh needs to pick up merits. It should be merit based society that encourages 'speaking truth to the power' culture. Only then Bangladesh will be able to outwit adversarial situation in geopolitics.
Bengal was economic power house when India was 24% and China was 36% of world economy till 18thcentury. These two civilizations were 60% of world economy because they allowed the India Ocean as a 'Zone of Peace' that harnessed trade and commerce peacefully. A peaceful Indian Ocean in general and Bay of Bengal in particular can bring back these two regional giants to the pinnacle of economic success of 18th century and also transform Bangladesh into an economic power house of pre-colonial era.
The writer is former Principal Staff Officer, Armed Forces Division
