A cyclone is expected to form over the Bay of Bengal again this month. Last year, Cyclone Rimal caused significant damages in the coastal areas on May 27. Other cyclones, such as Amphan and Mokha, also struck in May. Notably, out of the seven strong cyclones recorded in the last five years, five occurred in May.
The Meteorological Department has indicated that a low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal is likely to develop into a cyclone later this month.
Meteorologists explain that the low pressure tends to intensify in the Bay of Bengal before the onset of the southwest monsoon in May. The monsoon season lasts until November. During this transitional period, weather instability can lead to the formation of cyclones.
Meteorologist Hafizur Rahman mentioned that the risk of low-pressure systems in the sea is typically high just before the monsoon begins. He predicts that a depression could form between May 23 and May 25. While it is too early to determine whether this depression will develop into a cyclone, the possibility remains.
Mustafa Kamal Palash, a researcher focused on weather and climate at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, stated that May is a favourable month for cyclone formation due to the sea temperature, changes in monsoon winds, and the geographical features of the Bay of Bengal. He noted that a low-pressure system could form in the sea on the 23rd of this month, with a cyclone potentially striking between the 25th and 28th.
Last year's statistics suggest that the fourth week of May is a likely time for cyclone activity. Palash mentioned that the new moon is expected on May 27. During the night of a full moon, the tide height in the sea is particularly high, and if a cyclone were to occur at that time, it could be very dangerous.
However, he expressed hope that a cyclone will develop in the sea before the new moon. According to a forecast from the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT), the monsoon typically enters Bangladesh between May 20 and June 19, marking the beginning of the monsoon season.
Currently, the monsoon is positioned at the southern border of the Bay of Bengal, and a cyclone system is likely to form before the onset of monsoon. The current conditions in the Bay of Bengal are conducive for a cyclonic storm, which could develop into a Category 1 cyclone from a low-pressure situation.
In addition, after a cyclone, the monsoon winds typically reach the coast of Bangladesh in the last week of May. These winds interact with the dry air over the land, resulting in pre-monsoon thunderstorms and signalling the arrival of the monsoon, usually by the first week of June. Bangladesh has experienced seven strong cyclones in the last five years.
Four of these cyclones occurred in May, while the other three struck in October and November. These cyclones, which formed in the Bay of Bengal, have impacted the coastal areas of Bangladesh and neighbouring regions. They have caused significant loss of life, damage to homes and crops, and have affected millions of people.
According to data from the Meteorological Department, the last strong cyclone, Rimal, struck Bangladesh on May 27, 2024. It made landfall in Khepupara, Patuakhali, with wind speeds reaching 111 kilometers per hour. In 2023, three cyclones affected Bangladesh. On November 17, Cyclone Midhili hit the Patuakhali coast with a wind speed of 102 kilometers per hour.
Earlier, on October 14, Cyclone Mokha struck Cox's Bazar, achieving wind speeds of 147 kilometers per hour. Shortly after, on October 24, Cyclone Hamun also hit the Cox's Bazar coast, with winds reaching 104 kilometres per hour.
On May 27, 2024, Cyclone Rimal struck the Barguna, Satkhira, Khulna, and Patuakhali regions. The disaster affected hundreds of thousands of families, leaving 15,000 mud houses in the Khulna region completely destroyed.
