Fear of cyclones and flash floods is looming over Bangladesh as monsoon season starts with heavy rainfall along with gusty winds witnessed across the country including Dhaka over the past few days.
According to meteorologists, a cyclone is in the making over the Bay of Bengal and may hit the coastal belts in the end of this month while flash floods induced by the incessant rains have already affected some parts of the country.
For this, Bangladesh Meteorological Department has already issued a warning saying that a low-pressure system is developing in the Bay that could intensify into a cyclone between May 23 and 25. Though it is hard to gauge its severity and exact direction in this early stage, the atmospheric conditions ahead of the southwest monsoon are highly conducive to form a cyclone.
But cyclonic storms generally brew over the Bay of Bengal in May. This is why May is dubbed a high-risk month for such storms, with five of seven major cyclones in last five years occurring during this time. Meanwhile, Bangladesh Weather Observation Team confirms that the southwest monsoon usually enters the country between May 20 and June 19.
A weather expert said that the new moon on May 27 is particularly concerning as tidal surges are typically stronger during lunar phases. He was also in view that if the cyclone aligns with the full tide, the damage could be severe but expressed hope that the storm might form earlier and avoid this critical period.
Meanwhile, a flash flood has already affected Sherpur district with some low-lying areas going under water. This flood is mainly caused by continuous heavy rains in Meghalaya and Assam and rains in the district for the last few days. As a result, water level in the district's Chellakhali River crossed the danger level of 106 centimeters on Tuesday which was 39 centimeters before a day. The water level of another river, Someshwari, has also risen dangerously in the region.
Bangladesh is a flood and cyclone- prone country. As per some estimates, about 20% of the country is submersed by overflowing rivers during monsoon in a normal flood year, about 35% in a moderate flood year and more than 60% in a major flood year.
But flooding in Bangladesh is the result of a complex set of factors. They include huge onrush of water from upstream regions coupled with heavy monsoon rainfall, low floodplain and congested drainage channels, convergences of the major rivers inside Bangladesh, tides and storm surges in coastal areas and last but not least the impact of climate change.
Yet, climate change is one of the major reasons, exacerbating floods in Bangladesh. Rising temperatures induced by rapid global urbanization and industrialization are causing Himalayan glaciers to melt, which increases river flow and the intensity of floods. This sea-level rise intensifies floods mainly in the coastal areas.
