A fresh cyclone may form over the Bay of Bengal in the final week of May, raising concerns among meteorologists and coastal communities already reeling from past disasters.
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) has warned of a developing low-pressure system in the Bay that could intensify into a cyclone between May 23 and 25. Though it is still early to confirm its trajectory or severity, the atmospheric conditions ahead of the southwest monsoon are highly conducive to storm formation.
Experts point out that May has historically been a high-risk month for such storms, with five of seven major cyclones in last five years occurring during this time.
"Low-pressure systems are more likely to form in May due to rising sea temperatures and shifting monsoon winds," said Hafizur Rahman, a meteorologist at the department. “If the current low develops further, a depression is expected within days, which may evolve into a cyclone.”
Mustafa Kamal Palash, a climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan, noted that the timing and environmental factors point to a possible landfall between May 25 and 28. “This period coincides with the new moon, which could result in dangerously high tides if a cyclone hits then,” he warned.
Palash added that the new moon on May 27 is particularly concerning, as tidal surges are typically stronger during lunar phases. "If the cyclone aligns with the full tide, the damage could be severe," he said, while expressing hope that the storm might form earlier and avoid this critical period.
According to the Bangladesh Weather Observation Team (BWOT), the southwest monsoon usually enters the country between May 20 and June 19. Currently, the monsoon system is positioned at the southern edge of the Bay, with storm conditions ripening in the pre-monsoon heat.
Historically, cyclones have had devastating consequences. Last year, Cyclone Rimal struck on May 27, making landfall in Khepupara, Patuakhali with wind speeds of 111 km/h. It severely affected the Barguna, Satkhira, Khulna, and Patuakhali regions, destroying over 35,000 homes and partially damaging another 1.15 million. The Agriculture Department estimated crop losses of Tk 508.97 million in the Barisal division alone, impacting nearly 1.7 million farmers.
Other recent cyclones include Midhili (November 2023), which hit Patuakhali at 102 km/h, and Mokha and Hamun, which struck Cox’s Bazar in October 2023 with winds reaching up to 147 km/h. Most cyclones in Bangladesh originate in the Bay of Bengal and make landfall in the southern coastal belt, where they wreak havoc on agriculture, homes, and livelihoods.
Despite significant efforts in disaster preparedness, coastal communities remain increasingly vulnerable due to repeated storms and slow recovery. Mohan Kumar Mandal, Executive Director of LEADERS (Local Environment Development and Agricultural Research Society), emphasized, “Each year, it becomes harder for people to recover. Farmers and day laborers suffer the most, and the psychological toll is growing."
Rezwanur Rahman, Director General of the Department of Disaster Management, assured that the government is taking proactive measures. “We’ve allocated Tk 150 million across all districts, including the coastal upazilas. Relief supplies are being stocked, cyclone shelters assessed, and 80,000 volunteers are ready to respond,” he said.
Experts agree that the increasing frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal is closely linked to climate change. Environmental advocates stress that without stronger adaptation support, coastal populations will continue to suffer the brunt of the worsening climate crisis.
