Finally silver line peeps throughblack cloud as good sense prevailed over the hierarchies of nuke rivals India and Pakistan. Thanks Donald Trump for his mediation that resulted in a ceasefire and saved this subcontinent and beyond from an imminent danger of a nuclear war over Kashmir. This is not the first time Kashmir dragged these next door neighbours to war. Earlier in 1965, 1999 and in 2019 this nature queen prompted dangerous cross-border military escalations. Every time a prelude to war such asverbal and media battles and diplomatic invectives preceded such military escalations.
Chauvinism, populism, and religion card were at play this time too. There was little difference in the headlines of previous wars and the recent one except for the change in the number of casualties and design of weapons. Though no one came victorious of these battles so far, they took significant humane toll at the cost of innocent lives and property. But, why has the fate of Kashmir remained unchanged? Because,every episode is played here leaving theessentiality of staging the next onejust with the change of actors and date. Kashmir is like an Indian TV serial. So, what is next to Pahalgam? How many episodes are left to end this drama?
However, how much such drama could serve the purpose of Indian governmentregarding upcoming electionsis not the topic of discussionhere. Earlier, I have penned multiple times on this in this daily. Unfortunately, nothing is written on if India's picking quarrel is linked to an attempt of denuclearizing Pakistan. Importantly enough, what this drama this time laid bare, is a massive difference between what India is militarily meant to be, and its real military capacity.
The manner India was harassed in the face of Pakistan's stiff military resistanceand dominated by Pakistan, particularly in air strike,has started changing the age old concept of military experts on warfare.I am not claiming that in terms of the size of arms-depot, and number of soldiers Pakistan is ahead of India. But from weeklong observation of the conflict,it has been clear to me, no matter how manyguns you have, it is useless if the man behind the gun is not skilled enough. And here comes the point of quality, where Pakistan with limited military capacity outshone India. The Achilles heel of Indian military capacity will no doubt remain a matter of long debate for experts around the world.
Regionally, this year's Kashmir conflict may give new rise to arms race between India and Pakistan, and mount anti-Muslim repression across India amidst fresh violence and destruction of mosques and other Muslim establishments. From the recent incident of push-in from India to Bangladesh, animplicit nexus of such forceful eviction with escalating military tensions of New Delhi and Islamabad cannot be ruled out. Thus, there is a chance of regional stability of further getting stuck in a limbo provoking religious extremism further.
However, the next point to ponder is the global implications of Kashmir in this Indo-Pak conflict and its impact on war economy. Is the control of arms bazar undergoing a paradigm shift from Western world to Asia? It is a million dollar question after the disaster of India's French multirole fighter jet Rafael to Pakistan's Chinese fighter jet JF-17 Thunder, incurred huge financial loss on French aerospace company Dassault Aviation and brought Chinese business a gala day. Moreover, the US may face tougher competition of China in terms of its South Asian geopolitics. Its unilateral arms market control on this region may see a decline with the rise of China.In this situation, US may impose tougher conditionson India against its will, of withdrawing its geopolitical backing, if the later procuresits weapons from other countries except US.
Indian authority has repeatedly tried to validate attack on Kashmir saying that Kashmir is their internal matter. But, the ground reality is, the war of Kashmir is not the war of India -Pakistan alone. It is characteristically in tune with every rightful movement of Muslims in other parts of the world. Kashmir is no different from Palestine and Rohingya crises where international stakeholders are busy fishing in troubled waters. But, the danger of Kashmir is even higher as it is surrounded its all by nuclear powers- India, Pakistan and China.
International actors, particularly China and the UN, could play a facilitative role, but the primary responsibility lies with India and Pakistan to rebuild trust, engage in sustained dialogue, and shift from military confrontation to cooperative security.
The writer is a poet
