A long-forgotten Soviet spacecraft originally intended for a mission to Venus is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth's atmosphere around May 10, according to space debris experts.
The aging probe, known as Kosmos 482, has been orbiting the Earth since its failed launch in 1972 and may soon plunge back to the planet — possibly intact.
The capsule, which weighs over 1,000 pounds (about 500 kilograms) and measures roughly 3 feet (1 meter) in diameter, was designed to endure the harsh descent through Venus’s dense atmosphere. That same durability now raises concerns it could partially survive its reentry through Earth's atmosphere.
Dutch orbital analyst Marco Langbroek predicts the capsule may crash to Earth at speeds of up to 150 mph (242 kph) if it remains intact. He noted that the risk to humans is very low, comparable to the chance of being struck by a meteorite — an event that happens several times per year globally. “You run a bigger risk of getting hit by lightning in your lifetime,” he wrote.
The spacecraft has remained in a decaying elliptical orbit for more than five decades. While most of the launch components reentered and disintegrated in the years following its failed mission, the Venus landing capsule has persisted — largely due to its robust design and protective heat shield.
Astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics said the ideal outcome would be for the heat shield to fail, allowing the capsule to burn up on reentry. However, if the shield remains functional, there’s a chance the probe could survive the descent and crash to Earth.
Reentry could occur anywhere between 51.7 degrees north and south latitude — a broad swath of the globe ranging from Canada and northern Europe to the southern tips of South America and Africa. However, Langbroek noted that with oceans covering most of the planet, there’s a good chance the probe will end up in the sea.
