On April 22, 2025, the world was reminded of the fragility of peace in South Asia when a devastating terrorist attack struck Pahalgam, a tourist destination in Kashmir, India. The attack claimed twenty-six lives and injured several, reigniting long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan and threatening to push two nuclear-armed neighbors toward catastrophic confrontation. In response, India suspended the historic Indus Waters Treaty, a vital water-sharing agreement, along with other measures. Pakistan countered by closing its airspace to aircrafts originating from India. As the world watches this escalation, it is crucial to reflect that our planet, already burdened by ongoing wars, simply cannot sustain another major conflict. Hence, the global community must act urgently to prevent an India-Pakistan war.
The world is already grappling with devastating wars that have inflicted enormous human suffering, economic devastation, and social collapse. The Israel-Gaza War, reignited in October 2023, has left more than 70,000 Palestinians dead, over 120,000 injured and displaced nearly 2 million. The Russia-Ukraine War, dragging into its third year, has resulted in over 500,000 deaths, millions injured, and over 10 million displaced. In Myanmar, the civil war following the 2021 military coup has escalated severely as over 80,000 people have been killed and nearly 2 million displaced.
Sudan's civil war since April 2023 has claimed around 160,000 lives and displaced over 12 million. Ethiopia has witnessed renewed violence after the Tigray conflict, resulting in thousands of deaths and more than 4 million internally displaced. The war in Yemen has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. Since 2015, over 377,000 people have died, with 150,000 killed directly by violence and around 227,000 succumbing to famine and lack of healthcare while more than 4.5 million have been displaced. Meanwhile, conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their contentious border has claimed thousands of lives, worsening an already dire refugee crisis. Beyond these, several other conflicts of different scale continue to inflict suffering around the globe.
These figures are not just statistics; they represent a rising tide of human misery overwhelming global humanitarian agencies, fracturing regional stability, and triggering profound geopolitical shifts. Every ongoing conflict wounds the collective body of humanity, bleeding resources, hope, and potential. Against this backdrop, the mere possibility of an India-Pakistan war, especially after the Pahalgam tragedy, raises grave alarm.
Beyond the human cost, wars bring devastating economic consequences that ripple across nations. The Israel-Gaza conflict has decimated Gaza's economy, shrinking it by nearly 80 percent within months by late 2023, with unemployment at catastrophic levels. Israel's economy has also been impacted, disrupting regional trade and tourism. The Russia-Ukraine war has had broader effects, severely disrupting global food and energy markets. Ukraine, once a major grain exporter, has seen agricultural output collapse, triggering food price surges from Africa to Asia. Meanwhile, sanctions against Russia have worsened inflation globally.
The Myanmar civil war has devastated the economy, triggering hyperinflation, currency devaluation, and the collapse of key industries. Sudan's civil war has crippled agricultural production and gold mining, reducing GDP by more than 40 percent. Ethiopia's ongoing conflict has reversed economic progress, plunging millions into poverty and eroding investor confidence at the 'Horn of Africa'. The Pakistan-Afghanistan border conflict, though limited, has severely curtailed trade, undermined regional initiatives, and fostered a growing illicit economy.
Economic damage from war seldom stays confined to national borders. It spills over, disrupting supply chains, international trade, and investment flows, destabilizing global systems. A war between India and Pakistan would amplify these effects. As two key economies in South Asia, conflict would disrupt bilateral trade and global supply chains. India's vital role in IT, pharmaceuticals, and services industry, coupled with Pakistan's strategic significance, would send shockwaves through global markets, worsening the fragile global economy.
The humanitarian toll of war is often the most visible. In Gaza, entire neighborhoods have been reduced to rubble, hospitals overwhelmed, and basic necessities scarce. Ukraine has witnessed cities decimated by strikes, forcing millions into exile across Europe, straining social welfare systems. In Myanmar, ethnic minorities face airstrikes, ground offensives, and systemic human rights violations. Bangladesh, home to nearly a million Rohingya refugees, faces threats of further influxes of Myanmar citizens into Bangladesh.
Sudan's crisis is one of the world's worst, with widespread famine and collapsing health services. Ethiopia's internal conflicts have caused massacres, rapes, and targeted famines. In Afghanistan and along the Pakistan border, civilians live in fear of drone strikes, militant attacks, and military operations. Refugee crises are swelling there, with affected populations fleeing to countries like Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asia, straining resources. Humanitarian agencies, already helping 360 million people worldwide, are overwhelmed with the burden of these wars as they are in grave fight for funds from the donor countries and organizations, which are also economically impacted by these wars.
If war breaks out between India and Pakistan, the humanitarian consequences would be catastrophic. The two nations, which have fought four major wars since 1947, with three over Kashmir, have enormous populations-India's 1.46 billion, being first in the world in terms of population and Pakistan's 255 million, being fifth. Hence, a full-scale conflict could trigger the largest refugee crisis in modern history. The presence of nuclear weapons escalates the stakes as even a limited exchange could kill millions within hours and render large parts of South Asia uninhabitable. The fallout would not respect borders, potentially causing secondary crises in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa through environmental devastation, famine, and mass migration.
An India-Pakistan war would not remain a regional issue. Even a limited nuclear conflict between them could trigger a global nuclear winter, devastating agricultural production, collapsing food systems, and causing mass starvation, affecting billions. South Asia's economic importance cannot be overstated. India is the world's fifth-largest economy. Pakistan, while smaller, holds strategic significance as a gateway between Central Asia, the Middle East, and South Asia. A war would shatter regional growth, disrupting connectivity initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). This would lead to global economic contraction, rising commodity prices, and a new wave of protectionism at a time when more cooperation is needed.
Given the ideological dimensions of India-Pakistan tensions, a war could radicalize populations globally, increasing extremism, terrorism, and civil unrest far beyond South Asia, destabilizing fragile regions in Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. An India-Pakistan war would also drain international diplomatic and financial resources, affecting peace initiatives, humanitarian operations, and development programs worldwide. Considering the context of today's world, the global citizens simply cannot endure another major war.
In this context, global leaders and institutions, especially the United Nations, must act immediately to prevent war. Diplomatic engagement at the highest levels is crucial. Mediation efforts by the U.S., China, Russia, and European nations must be launched without delay. The UN Secretary-General should convene an emergency session of the Security Council to address the Pahalgam attack and urge both nations to exercise restraint. Arms-selling nations must prioritize humanity over profit, halting arms supplies to both side and refraining from fattening their war economy.
Confidence-building measures must be proposed, including international monitors along borders and independent investigations into terrorist attacks. Water-sharing agreements, such as the Indus Waters Treaty, must be reaffirmed and updated, with international guarantees for compliance. Global leaders must address the root causes of Indo-Pak tensions, including Kashmir, religious intolerance, and historical animosities. Long-term peace can only be achieved through genuine dialogue, not militaristic posturing.
Bangladesh, as a regional partner of both India and Pakistan, must address regional concerns for the sake of its people. No nation wants a war among its neighbors, and Bangladesh should not support either side but rather take initiatives to calm tensions and promote peace. The people of Bangladesh, especially those politically motivated, must refrain from actions that disturb regional peace or appear to take sides.
India and Pakistan have been entangled in conflicts since their inception, increasing defense expenditures that could have been used for development. These conflicts have destabilized the region. Some are trying to religiously color this conflict, which will only serve divisive interests. The people of both nations need to understand that war will only bring harm and should advocate for peace. As important members of South Asia, both countries have responsibilities to their citizens and the region. Hopefully, citizens of both countries will call for peace and urge their governments to restore peace.
The costs of inaction are too high. Failing to act risks plunging the world into an era of interminable wars, humanitarian crises, and economic decline-a scenario that may take decades, if at all, to recover from. In the face of existential threats like climate change, pandemics, and technological disruptions, another India-Pakistan war would be a self-inflicted wound of catastrophic proportions. The time to act is now and the world must unite to end wars and restore peace.
The writer is Chief Editor at Mohammadi News Agency (MNA) and Editor at Kishore Bangla
