Emarketer has forecasted that X, formerly known as Twitter, will see growth in ad revenue this year, driven by brands' fear of potential retaliation from owner Elon Musk, a politically connected billionaire.
Musk's close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump and his leadership of a government department focused on cutting public sector jobs have created a climate where many advertisers may feel compelled to spend on X to avoid possible legal or financial repercussions.
"Many advertisers may view spending on X as a cost of doing business in order to mitigate potential legal or financial repercussions," said Jasmine Enberg, Emarketer's principal analyst. However, she also pointed out that fear is not a sustainable motivator, and the situation remains volatile, particularly as Musk’s actions have led to growing discontent among some consumers.
The forecasted ad revenue growth for X is 16.5% this year, marking its first year of positive ad revenue since 2021, following a period of decline after Musk acquired Twitter for approximately $44 billion in late 2022. Despite the growth, Emarketer cautioned that the platform’s ad revenue will still be lower than in 2019.
The expected recovery in X’s ad revenue is partly attributed to Meta's decision to relax content moderation protocols, which analysts believe could lead to an increase in hateful content on both platforms. This shift may benefit X, which has seen a rise in advertising from small- and medium-sized businesses—advertisers that Twitter historically struggled to attract.
Emarketer also forecasted a slight 11% growth in Meta's ad revenue in the United States this year, but noted that advertisers are realizing they may not have as much control over where and how their ads appear as they once thought. "The kind of hateful and controversial content that prompted advertisers to flee X is no more acceptable, but there is a sense that it could become unavoidable," Enberg said.
