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Imamoglu's arrest is a move in Erdogan's quest for dominance

Published : Wednesday, 26 March, 2025 at 12:00 AM  Count : 356
Rajeev Ahmed
The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu, Istanbul's mayor and a beam of hope for Turkey's opposition, on 19 March 2025, is not merely a domestic political maneuver; it is a microcosm of the broader geopolitical dynamics surrounding Turkey and its embattled leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This event underscores the deepening crisis of Erdogan's authoritarian regime, which is increasingly isolated both domestically and internationally. To fully understand the implications of Imamoglu's arrest, one must delve into the complexities of Turkey's domestic politics, its regional ambitions, and its shifting alliances on the global stage.

Erdogan's rise to power in the early 2000s was initially celebrated as a triumph of democratic reform and economic modernization. He positioned himself as a bridge between Turkey's secular Kemalist establishment and its conservative Muslim majority, promising to reconcile these divergent identities while propelling Turkey into the ranks of global powers. For a time, he succeeded, overseeing a period of robust economic growth and expanding Turkey's influence in the Middle East, Europe, and beyond. However, this era of optimism gave way to a gradual but unmistakable shift toward authoritarianism.

The 2017 constitutional referendum, which transformed Turkey into a presidential system, marked a turning point. Ostensibly aimed at streamlining governance, it was in reality a power grab that enabled Erdogan to centralize authority and sideline opposition. The judiciary, once a pillar of Turkey's secular democracy, was subordinated to the executive, its independence sacrificed to political expediency. The press was muzzled, and dissent was criminalized. The arrest of Imamoglu, a charismatic and popular opposition figure, is the latest and most egregious example of this trend. The charges against him-ranging from corruption to alleged ties with the PKK-are widely seen as politically motivated, designed to eliminate a rival who poses a genuine threat to Erdogan's hegemony.

Imamoglu's rise to prominence is a testament to his political acumen and his ability to connect with a broad spectrum of Turkish society. His victory in the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, and his even more emphatic win in the rerun, was a stinging rebuke to Erdogan and the AKP. Istanbul, Turkey's largest city and economic powerhouse, has long been a bellwether of the nation's political mood. By wresting control of the city from the AKP, Imamoglu not only demonstrated the opposition's electoral viability but also exposed the cracks in Erdogan's once-unassailable political edifice. His ability to appeal to both secular and conservative voters, as well as the Kurdish minority, makes him a uniquely potent threat to Erdogan's rule.

The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu comes at a time when Erdogan's geopolitical influence is in decline, not only in the Middle East but also in Europe, where Turkey's relations have grown increasingly strained. Once a pivotal player in the region, Erdogan leveraged Turkey's strategic location and military prowess to broker deals and assert influence. However, his erratic foreign policy, characterized by shifting alliances and confrontational rhetoric, has alienated many of his erstwhile partners, including key European nations.

The United States, once a key ally, has grown increasingly wary of Erdogan's authoritarian tendencies and his cozy relationship with Russia. Turkey's purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system in 2019 was a major point of contention, leading to Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 fighter jet program and the imposition of U.S. sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). While the Biden administration had sought to maintain a working relationship with Turkey, particularly given its strategic importance as a NATO member, Erdogan's domestic crackdowns and human rights abuses strained ties. The arrest of Imamoglu, a figure seen as a potential democratic reformer, further undermines Turkey's credibility as a reliable partner in the eyes of Washington.

Relations with Israel have also deteriorated under Erdogan's leadership. Once close allies, Turkey and Israel have seen their bilateral ties strained by Erdogan's vocal support for the Palestinian cause and his frequent criticism of Israeli policies. This has not only alienated Israel but also complicated Turkey's relations with other regional players, such as Greece and Cyprus, with whom Israel has developed closer ties in recent years. The discovery of natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean has further exacerbated tensions, as Turkey's aggressive maritime claims have put it at odds with its neighbors and the European Union.

Erdogan's involvement in the Syrian conflict has been a double-edged sword. Initially, he positioned himself as a bulwark against Bashar al-Assad's regime, using the Syrian conflict to justify military interventions and consolidate domestic support. However, as the conflict has dragged on, Erdogan's strategic utility has diminished. With Assad's grip on power increasingly tenuous and the Syrian conflict winding down, Erdogan's role as a regional power broker has lost much of its relevance. Moreover, his reliance on Russia for diplomatic and military support in Syria has further complicated Turkey's relations with the West. While Erdogan has sought to balance his ties with Moscow and Washington, this balancing act has become increasingly untenable as Turkey's domestic and international challenges mount.

Turkey's relations with European countries have also deteriorated significantly under Erdogan's rule. Once a candidate for European Union membership, Turkey's accession talks have effectively stalled, with Brussels citing concerns over democratic backsliding, human rights abuses, and the erosion of the rule of law. The arrest of Imamoglu, a prominent opposition figure, is likely to further strain these already tense relations. European leaders have increasingly criticized Erdogan's authoritarian tactics, and the EU has imposed targeted sanctions on Turkish officials involved in human rights violations.

Moreover, Turkey's aggressive posturing in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly its disputes with Greece and Cyprus over maritime boundaries and energy exploration, has heightened tensions with the EU. France, in particular, has taken a hardline stance, deploying naval forces to support Greece and Cyprus and calling for stronger EU sanctions against Turkey. Germany, traditionally a mediator in EU-Turkey relations, has also grown increasingly critical of Erdogan's policies, particularly in light of Turkey's domestic crackdowns and its role in the Syrian conflict.

The refugee crisis has been another flashpoint in Turkey-EU relations. Under a 2016 agreement, the EU provided billions of euros in aid to Turkey in exchange for Ankara's cooperation in stemming the flow of migrants into Europe. However, Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to "open the gates" to Europe, using the refugee issue as leverage in negotiations with Brussels. This has further eroded trust between Turkey and the EU, making any meaningful rapprochement increasingly unlikely.

The economic fallout from Imamoglu's arrest further underscores the recklessness of Erdogan's actions. The Turkish lira plummeted, and the Istanbul Stock Exchange experienced a sharp decline, reflecting investor anxiety over political instability. This is not an isolated incident but part of a broader pattern of economic mismanagement under Erdogan's rule. His unorthodox monetary policies, including the dismissal of central bank governors who dared to raise interest rates, have exacerbated inflation and eroded the purchasing power of ordinary Turks. The cost-of-living crisis has become a defining feature of Erdogan's presidency, fueling widespread discontent.

By arresting Imamoglu, Erdogan has not only deepened the political crisis but also heightened economic uncertainty, further undermining his own legitimacy. The question is not if Erdogan will fall, but when-and what will come after. The arrest of Imamoglu may seem like a tactical victory for Erdogan's government, but the long-term consequences are fraught with uncertainty. Domestically, it risks uniting a fragmented opposition and igniting widespread discontent. Internationally, it further isolates Turkey, eroding its standing as a regional power and a reliable ally.

As Erdogan's regime teeters on the brink of collapse, the international community is increasingly looking beyond him to a post-Erdogan Turkey. The arrest of Imamoglu may be a desperate attempt to cling to power, but it is also a sign of Erdogan's growing desperation. The question now is not just about the future of Turkey's democracy, but also about the broader geopolitical implications of Erdogan's inevitable downfall. Will Turkey emerge as a more democratic and inclusive nation, or will it descend further into authoritarianism and instability? The answer to this question will have profound implications not just for Turkey, but for the entire region and the world.

The writer is an Editor of Geopolits.com


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