In a crucial development for South Asian diplomacy, Bangladesh's Chief Adviser, Dr. Mohammad Yunus, is expected to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the upcoming Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Summit, set to be held in Bangkok on April 4, 2025. This high-stakes meeting comes at a time when the relations between Bangladesh and India are grappling with several unresolved issues, and both leaders are hoping for a positive outcome that could help reduce tensions between the two neighboring countries.
The political atmosphere in Bangladesh took a significant turn after the sudden ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5, 2024, through a massive student-led protest. Hasina's government, long seen as a trusted ally of India, was overthrown, and a new interim government headed by Dr. Yunus assumed power. This shift in political leadership in Bangladesh has led to new complexities in bilateral relations, especially regarding sensitive issues like border killings, water sharing, visa complications, the protection of minorities, and India's perceived intervention in the domestic affairs of Bangladesh. There have also been concerns regarding the transit issues with neighboring countries like Nepal and Bhutan, where India has not made significant progress.
The most pressing of these concerns is the issue of border killings. In recent years, Bangladesh has witnessed numerous instances of its citizens being killed along the India-Bangladesh border. Alarmingly, statistics show that over 95% of the victims in these border skirmishes are Bangladeshis. While the governments of both countries have made efforts to address this issue, it continues to remain a sensitive point of contention. Alongside border killings, Bangladesh also faces issues related to water sharing of common rivers, which have been a long-standing source of tension between the two nations.
The political rift between Bangladesh and India also reflects in the drop in tourist arrivals. In 2024, Bangladesh's tourist arrivals in India fell by 20% compared to the previous year. This decline reflects the broader tensions between the two countries. The figures from the Indian Tourism Board revealed that in 2024, approximately 1.7 million Bangladeshis visited India, a sharp decline from the 2.12 million in 2023. This drop in tourism can be attributed to the growing political differences, further exacerbating the strain in the relationship.
Despite these tensions, there is a glimmer of hope as Bangladesh assumes the chairmanship of the BIMSTEC organization at this summit. As the next chair, Bangladesh has the opportunity to reaffirm its commitment to regional cooperation, and the meeting between Yunus and Modi offers a platform to discuss and resolve these issues. While the official agenda of the BIMSTEC summit includes a broad range of regional issues, sources suggest that discussions between the two leaders will focus on key bilateral concerns such as border killings, water sharing, and visa complications.
BIMSTEC, a regional grouping formed in 1997, consists of seven member countries: Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal, and Bhutan. Initially focused on promoting economic cooperation between these nations, the organization now covers a wider range of sectors, including public health, counter-terrorism, and climate change. Bangladesh, as the chair, is expected to push for more comprehensive initiatives, particularly in the areas of connectivity and regional integration. A breakthrough in these areas could have significant implications for improving relations with India.
One of the most contentious issues between Bangladesh and India is the transit issue. Bangladesh has long sought Indian cooperation to allow its goods and people to transit through India to Nepal, a landlocked neighbor. Despite high-level talks between the two governments, the issue remains unresolved. At the BIMSTEC summit, this issue is likely to be discussed again, with both leaders hoping to find a way to improve connectivity and economic cooperation in the region.
In recent months, there have been signs that the two countries may be able to ease tensions. The Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) held between Indian and Bangladeshi officials in December 2024 addressed the issue of visa complications, with the two sides reportedly making progress in easing restrictions. However, this progress has not been sufficient to address the broader political challenges that persist between the two countries. For instance, India has raised concerns about the security situation in Bangladesh, particularly regarding the protection of religious minorities. These concerns were voiced by India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh, who reaffirmed India's commitment to maintaining strong ties with Bangladesh, while also highlighting the need for Bangladesh to address issues related to law and order.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope that the upcoming meeting between Yunus and Modi will pave the way for better bilateral relations. Indian leaders have been emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong ties with Bangladesh, and it is likely that Modi will invite Dr. Yunus to India for further discussions. Such a visit could send a strong signal that both countries are committed to finding common ground and resolving their differences.
At the same time, the role of the international community and regional organizations like BIMSTEC will be critical in facilitating dialogue and cooperation between Bangladesh and India. Indra Mani Pandey, the Secretary-General of BIMSTEC, has emphasized that Bangladesh, as the next chair, will have an opportunity to demonstrate its commitment to regional cooperation and take the lead in resolving some of these long-standing issues.
In conclusion, the Yunus-Modi meeting at the BIMSTEC summit holds the potential to break the ice between the two countries and lay the foundation for a more constructive relationship. While there are numerous challenges to overcome, the political will from both sides, along with the support of regional and international partners, could help bridge the gap and open new avenues for cooperation. As leaders on both sides look to the future, the hope remains that the meeting will mark the beginning of a new chapter in Bangladesh-India relations.
