“In order to mitigate job losses, new sectors such as jute, healthcare, hospitality and retail could create about 1.5 million new jobs by 2030 which could be taken up by workers formerly employed in the textile and apparel and construction sectors, provided they receive skilling and placement support.”
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Just transition for de-carbonization is anew pathways towards sustainability. The Paris Agreement recognizes the imperative of the just transition seeking to ensure fairness and inclusivity during transition to a low-carbon economy and prioritizes the creation of equitable opportunities for all members of society. It involves maximizing the social and economic opportunities of climate action, minimizing carefully the challenges through effective social dialogue among all groups impacted and respect for fundamental labour principles and rights.
A recent report published by FSG- a mission-driven consulting firm supporting leaders in creating large-scale lasting social change with the support of H&M Foundation and Laudes Foundation. The report referring a study of Climate Resilience Centre (2022) informed that on a business as usual trajectory, rising sea levels are expected to submerge about 17% of Bangladesh's land and displace 20 million people by 2050. In another note, the report stated that additionally without adequate adaptation, the country is projected to lose 4.8% working hours due to heat stress by 2030( Anderson Hoffner, L., Simpson, J ., Maaartinez, C., Patumtaewapibal A.( 2021). This is one of the causes of concerns for the policy makers and businesses for which the just industry transition needs direct grant and multi-stakeholders' collaboration.
As per the report, as Bangladesh economy grew 24-fold during the last 43 years starting from 1980, GHG emission increased by 176% as per several published reports. Only with proactive investments in just transition can bring opportunities for business and countries and mitigate physical and transition risks. They conducted a good study on Textile and Construction sectors of Bangladesh. Industry has been the main vehicle of growth employing 12 million people and accounts 34% of GDP in the country, however it also contributes 15% of the country's total emissions which is going to rise about 50% by 2030. The textile and construction sector jointly contributes 80% of the industrial workforce, 74% of the industrial GDP and at the same time 50% of the emissions.
For a just transition, there is a need for inclusion of workers, other marginal and vulnerable communities to involve in the decision making. Establish agencies to ensure that workers and affected communities have the power to influence decision making and accountability of companies and government who hold decision making power, to those affected by industry transition, particularly workers and communities. The report tried to focus on some pathways to accelerate just transitions in the textile and apparel and construction sectors. It tried to help stakeholders identify how they can contribute to advancing just industry transitions with industry-focused scenarios that outline potential futures for transitions in these two sectors. The research reach out to over 100 Bangladeshi and international stakeholders, presented multiple possible futures so that decision makers can explore the full spectrum of possibilities, positive, negative , expected and surprising.
They referred to six scenarios that represent divergent but possible future evolutions of textile and apparel sector, these are, green forest( sustainable fashion, low carbon-process, sustainable fabrics and climate resilience practices, agency inclusion for accountability to workers). The concrete jungle scenario sets up the sector for a late and disorderly transition, severely compromising its mid-to-long-term competitiveness.
Construction is largely driven by the domestic demand. The best-casescenario of the sector is green city envisions a world, low carbon, climate resilient and adaptive construction, prioritizing agency and inclusion of and accountability to workers. Uncontrolled urban sprawl scenario creates mid-to long term risks for the sector, climate and workers with action that are too little and too late.
The report at the same time suggested for climate change mitigation through transition to low carbon manufacturing, including design, processes and energy, through uptake of sustainable and circular inputs, climate adaptation at site and manufacturing hub level, alternative sector development, skilling, social protection to mitigate job losses, adequate and affordable housing, innovative financing solution, prioritization of the inclusion and agency of and accountability to workers involved. These all are need time, proper planning and finance.
In order to mitigate job losses, new sectors such as jute, healthcare, hospitality and retail could create about 1.5 million new jobs by 2030 which could be taken up by workers formerly employed in the textile and apparel and construction sectors, provided they receive skilling and placement support. The report called for a multi stakeholder action to accelerate a new industry transition.
As the job loss and new job creation is one of the primary concerned for Bangladesh, Secretary, Ministry of Foreign Affairs(MoF) who was the key note presenter of the program, referred about the report on Future of Jobs 2025 by World Economic Forum(WEF) which has mentioned that technological change, geo-economic fragmentation, economic uncertainty, demographic shifts and the green transition - individually and in combination are among the major drivers expected to shape and transform the global labour market by 2030. Bangladesh trade and investment policies need to be shaped up accordingly to align its job markets with the emerging needs.
The Future of Jobs Report 2025 brings together the perspective of over 1,000 leading global employers-collectively representing more than 14 million workers across 22 industry clusters and 55 economies from around the world-to examine how these macro trends impact jobs and skills, and the workforce transformation strategies employers plan to embark on in response, across the 2025 to 2030 timeframe. Bangladesh is unknown in this picture, as a very few of the corporates in the country are in the global level and the country is mostly dominated by domestic SMEs.
The question now raised while the report referred about transformation, we are telling just transition which would be the most appropriate strategies for the climate stretched countries like Bangladesh Transition is to be for a gradual shift, often with stages involved to a new stage, but its nature varies for respective countries. The world population is about 8.02 billion(2023), transition needs differ for each and everybody and each and every country. Bangladesh needs it customized policies along with a strong political will. Who will lead for this customized policy for sustainability.
Bangladesh do not have a significant manufacturing sector, particularly in the garment industry, the largest contributor to GDP is in the service sector, making it more accurately classified as a service economy than a manufacturing one can be policy. However, Bangladesh's policy is to go for a manufactured-base export led economy. We need to prepare our mindset accordingly before setting the strategy for transition.
The just transition is a crucial enabler to implementing the net zero transition, involving all affected parties and responding to injustices. The concept of just transition, broadly defined as ensuring that no one is left behind or pushed behind in the transition to low- carbon and environmentally sustainable economies and societies. This can enable more ambitious climate action and provide an impetus to attaining the Sustainable Development Goals.
Countries need to develop, through inclusive dialogue, approaches to a just transition that reflects the needs, priorities and realities of their societies and their historical responsibilities for climate change and environmental degradation. The concept of just transition, while arising from concerns for justice at the local and national levels, cannot be separated from the broader issues of global climate justice and common but differentiated responsibilities.
A globally just transition requires countries to meet their climate commitments and ensure that in doing so, they do not push poorer countries further behind by creating barriers to trade or excluding them from the opportunities associated with the expansion of new product markets. It also requires policy space for developing countries to develop their productive capacities, new intellectual property frameworks for and the co-development of clean technologies, the expansion of systems for the payment of ecosystem services and scaled-up international cooperation to ensure financing for infrastructure and resilience-building.
Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR) should be the principle that acknowledges that countries have varying responsibilities for climate change and environmental degradation. CBDR as a guiding principle of international cooperation and solidarity should have a clear stand about the needs of diversified economies. Based on thecapabilities and supporting enablers such as technology, finance, skills the responsibilities transitionwould be different for different countries. We can think of a newer kind of process not only based on the prices but on the values of the people and communities.
The writer is a Chief Executive Officer, Business Initiative Leading Development (BUILD)
