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What Harris’s defeat means for South Asia

Published : Saturday, 9 November, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 302
Pranto Chatterjee
The recent U.S. presidential election has sent shockwaves across the world. Kamala Harris's loss to Donald Trump is more than just a defeat; it signals a transformation in global political dynamics that will deeply impact South Asia, particularly countries like Bangladesh and India. Trump's return, marked by his signature brand of populism and nationalism, is likely to have significant implications for U.S. relations across Asia, reshape global alliances, and influence the economic and political landscape far beyond American borders. For countries like Bangladesh with interim governments and for India as a regional power, Harris's loss and Trump's re-emergence carry far-reaching consequences that demand careful analysis and strategic foresight.

Kamala Harris's defeat is a poignant reminder of the complexities faced by women and minority leaders in U.S. politics. As the first woman of color to lead a major presidential ticket, Harris's campaign faced systemic challenges, including overtly racially tinged criticisms and intensified media scrutiny. Despite her alignment with progressive policies, she struggled to galvanize a broad voter base around issues that resonated in 2024, particularly economic concerns that Trump's campaign leveraged effectively.

Bangladesh, a country with deep economic ties to the United States, is already at a crossroads, with an interim government overseeing an uncertain political environment. Trump's focus on protectionism and trade barriers could impose stricter conditions on Bangladeshi exports, especially in the garment sector, which is a cornerstone of the country's economy. Given that Bangladesh exports around $7 billion in garments annually to the U.S., potential tariffs or restrictions would disrupt this critical revenue stream, forcing Dhaka to explore alternative markets.

India, on the other hand, finds itself in a position of relative advantage. Trump has demonstrated a close rapport with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, underscored by their alignment on economic nationalism and anti-China sentiment. Modi's "Make in India" initiative aligns well with Trump's approach, creating a strong foundation for enhanced bilateral cooperation. This renewed U.S.-India alliance could lead to increased investment in sectors like defense, cybersecurity, and energy, cementing India's role as a strategic partner in the Indo-Pacific region.

The U.S.-China rivalry, already a defining element of global politics, is likely to intensify under Trump's renewed leadership. His administration is expected to implement stricter economic measures against China, encompassing trade restrictions, technology decoupling, and military posturing in the South China Sea. For South Asia, this escalation could create a ripple effect, pressuring smaller nations like Bangladesh to align with either the U.S. or China.

Bangladesh, which benefits from China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), faces a complex choice. While the BRI has supported infrastructure development in Bangladesh, strengthening its economic ties with China, a closer alliance with Beijing could risk complicating relations with the U.S. and India, both of whom view China's growing influence in South Asia with apprehension. Trump's administration might actively discourage South Asian countries from engaging with Chinese investments, presenting a dilemma for Bangladesh's interim government. Striking a balance between welcoming Chinese investments and maintaining favorable U.S. relations will require adept diplomacy and strategic vision.

Trump's return brings a renewed focus on economic protectionism, potentially leading to reduced global trade and investment flows. For developing economies in South Asia, this poses a threat to their growth trajectories. Bangladesh's dependence on exports, especially in the garment sector, makes it vulnerable to shifts in U.S. trade policy. In 2024, the U.S. accounted for nearly 20% of Bangladesh's total exports, making any policy changes by the Trump administration significant for Bangladesh's economic stability.

In the broader context of South Asia, this economic shift might lead to increased intra-regional trade as countries look to counterbalance the impact of U.S. protectionism. India's economic strength positions it as a potential regional leader in fostering South Asian economic cooperation, creating opportunities for enhanced trade partnerships within the region. However, for Bangladesh, economic diversification remains essential. As the U.S. market becomes less accessible, Bangladesh must seek new trade agreements with European nations and strengthen its ties with regional partners like India, Japan, and ASEAN countries to safeguard its economic resilience.

Kamala Harris's loss and Trump's return bring both challenges and opportunities for South Asia. For Bangladesh, the immediate priority under its interim government is to stabilize the economy amid shifting trade dynamics and global tensions. Strategically, Bangladesh must adopt a diversified approach to its alliances, strengthening relations with regional and global partners while safeguarding its economic independence. India, as a rising regional power, may serve as an ally in navigating these challenges, but Bangladesh will need to carefully manage its interactions with India and China to avoid entanglements in their geopolitical competition.

For India, Trump's re-election offers a unique opportunity to deepen its strategic partnership with the U.S., particularly in counterbalancing China's influence. However, this strengthened alliance could risk alienating South Asian neighbors if not managed inclusively. India's role as a regional leader will hinge on its ability to foster cooperation across South Asia, ensuring that Trump's foreign policy shift does not create divides that destabilize the region.

The 2024 U.S. election has set the stage for a complex period in world politics, where South Asia finds itself at the center of competing global interests. As Bangladesh and India navigate this new reality, the road ahead will demand strategic adaptation, diplomatic poise, and a commitment to regional collaboration. This election has reshaped not only American politics but also the global order, with South Asia poised to play a pivotal role in the unfolding story of an increasingly fragmented world.

The writer is a former ICCR Scholar and a postgraduate student in Autonomous Vehicle Engineering at the University of Naples Federico II, Italy.



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