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Possible impacts if Trump returns to power

Published : Monday, 4 November, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 312
Pranto Chatterjee
The potential reelection of Donald Trump in 2024 has implications not only for the U.S. but for international relations, alliances, trade, and regional security worldwide. His first term underscored a distinct approach to governance-one that emphasized "America First" policies, sought to dismantle bureaucratic barriers, and centralized control over federal institutions. If Trump returns to office, it would bring shifts across nearly all domains, from foreign policy and trade to judicial and social policies. For allies like India, his presidency could bring new opportunities but also significant risks.

A major focus of Trump's second-term agenda is immigration reform, where he aims to enforce stricter border control, potentially revisiting the controversial family separation policy. This shift would affect U.S.-Mexico relations, drive immigration policy debates, and potentially strain the U.S. workforce, especially in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. Trump's stance on immigration tends to resonate with his support base but has sparked intense political and social division within the U.S. This renewed approach may also affect countries in Latin America and around the world as they navigate diplomatic responses and address the outflow of migrants seeking asylum in the U.S.

Trump's return would likely further reshape foreign alliances, especially those involving NATO and Asia-Pacific allies. During his first term, he openly questioned NATO's financial contributions, causing unease among European allies. A Trump-led White House could mean a more transactional approach, with the U.S. expecting clear returns on any military or economic support offered to allies. This shift could influence NATO's role in counterbalancing Russia's expansionist moves in Eastern Europe, leading to a recalibration of security dynamics across the continent.

For India, Trump's reelection might provide mixed outcomes. Trump has demonstrated a unique camaraderie with Indian leaders, especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sharing interests in counterbalancing China's growing influence. Trump's aggressive stance toward China aligns with India's own geopolitical concerns, making the U.S. an attractive partner for India in defense and technology cooperation. This alignment could open doors for enhanced military and intelligence collaboration, possibly including arms deals, advanced technology transfers, and joint defense initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region.

At the same time, however, Trump's "America First" ideology may make him an unpredictable ally. His transactional foreign policy could mean that India would need to carefully weigh each interaction, balancing benefits with the risk of sudden policy reversals. If Trump intensifies the U.S.-China trade war, this might also benefit India's economy, positioning it as an alternative manufacturing hub. On the other hand, any sudden shift in trade policies, like increased tariffs on steel or IT services, could disrupt Indian exports to the U.S., affecting sectors crucial to India's economy.

Trump's judicial appointments remain one of the lasting legacies of his first term. A second term could enable him to shape the judiciary even further, especially on issues such as immigration, abortion, and gun rights. His judicial policies are often aligned with conservative values, resonating with segments of the American population but sparking resistance from progressive groups. The U.S. Supreme Court, already influenced by Trump's previous appointments, could become even more conservative, with lasting effects on civil rights and social justice issues in the U.S., which could echo across international human rights discussions.


In terms of economic policy, Trump's focus on deregulation and tax cuts may foster short-term economic growth but could also widen the wealth gap. During his first term, corporate tax cuts encouraged domestic investment, yet critics argue they disproportionately benefited the wealthy. If re-elected, Trump may continue along this path, promoting economic strategies favorable to corporations and high-income earners while potentially limiting welfare programs, affecting lower-income households.

In terms of trade, Trump's previous tariffs on China and renegotiations of trade agreements with Canada, Mexico, and other nations illustrate his hands-on, often confrontational approach. A second term might bring more aggressive trade policies, potentially sparking tariff wars and reshaping global supply chains. Allies and trading partners may experience disruptions, particularly in industries like agriculture, technology, and manufacturing. India, however, could capitalize on this shift if it positions itself as a viable alternative manufacturing hub, especially if Trump's policies continue to push companies out of China.

Another area to consider is Trump's military approach. His administration favored a reduction of U.S. presence in foreign conflicts, emphasizing that allies should contribute more to their defense. A Trump presidency might mean a continued pivot away from Middle Eastern engagements, a strategic focus on countering China's influence, and a renegotiated presence in NATO. For allies like India, this could translate to greater self-reliance on defense and an opportunity for deeper U.S.-India security cooperation, although Trump's stance remains unpredictable.

For India, navigating a Trump-led White House would require a careful, measured approach. India could benefit from a continued strategic partnership with the U.S., especially in countering China, but would need to remain adaptable to Trump's often volatile diplomatic style. While Trump's personal rapport with Modi may offer opportunities for bilateral collaboration, the unpredictability of Trump's policies means that India must also bolster its regional alliances and pursue an independent strategy that aligns with its long-term goals.

A Trump win could also reverberate across Asia, influencing policies in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and beyond. His approach to military involvement and aid could reshape the regional balance of power, especially in light of ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India. If Trump maintains his critical stance on China, India might find an ally in the U.S. in addressing regional security concerns, although this partnership would require careful diplomatic navigation to ensure stability and mutual benefit.

In sum, a second Trump presidency could mark a significant shift in the global political landscape, affecting everything from climate policy to trade and defense. For allies like India, a Trump win could bring both opportunities and challenges, underscoring the importance of a flexible, strategic approach. As Trump's policies often center on American interests, India would need to leverage its diplomatic strengths to align with U.S. interests when beneficial, while also cultivating independent strategies to navigate potential volatility in international relations.

The writer is a master's student in Autonomous Vehicle Engineering at the University of Naples Federico II, Italy


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