October has brought the worst dengue outbreak this year, with 49.95 per cent of the total cases and 45.11 per cent of the deaths was recorded this month.
At least 30,879 people were affected by the mosquito-borne disease in October alone, while a total of 61,817 cases have been reported across the country since January 1. The death toll reached 134 in October, bringing the total for the year to 297.
Specialists indicate that statistics and environmental conditions show no signs of a decline in dengue cases for November, which could worsen unless authorities take effective measures to combat the outbreak.
Talking to Daily Observer, Dr Golam Sarwar, an entomologist at the National Institute of Preventive and Social Medicine (NIPSOM), said the lack of 'contact tracing' has exacerbated the dengue threat.
He noted that environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, and sunlight are also contributing to the risk.
Dr Sarwar emphasised that the failure to implement contact tracing has led to an increase in the disease, particularly in rural areas.
"This year presents different circumstances, and there is a possibility of rain in November. Increased rainfall raises moisture levels in the environment, which enhances the desiccation resistance of mosquito eggs. As this resistance grows, so does the viability of the eggs, leading to a greater density of mosquitoes. This will result in a rise in dengue cases and fatalities," he explained.
He pointed out that contact tracing is not adequately performed in Bangladesh, particularly noting the high death toll in the Dhaka South City Corporation (DSCC) and the significant number of cases in the Dhaka North City Corporation (DNCC).
Dr Sarwar elaborated, "For instance, if a patient from outside Dhaka is brought to a hospital in the city and dies there, and his or her death is recorded with a Dhaka address, we cannot determine where the patient was infected.
The mosquito that transmitted the virus remains in the area where the patient was affected. Thus, we fail to identify the source and cannot implement targeted interventions in that location."
He also mentioned that the number of reported cases outside the city corporations has been notably high this year.
"However, we have not been able to trace their locations. This failure allows infected mosquitoes to move from village to village, which is very concerning," he added.
Dr Sarwar added that environmental conditions in November-such as rainfall, temperature, and sunlight-are still conducive to mosquito breeding, and breeding sites are not being effectively eliminated.
"For these reasons, we may face significant danger in November," he warned.
He stressed the critical need for effective contact tracing, saying, "It remains unclear where the infected mosquitoes are, which heightens the risk."
In contrast, dengue cases and deaths began to decline in previous years (2021, 2022, and 2023) starting in October, whereas October 2024 has deviated sharply from this trend.
This year, there have been eight dengue-related deaths in June, 12 in July, 27 in August, 80 in September, and 134 in October, showing a significant monthly increase.
According to the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), seven dengue patients died and 1,243 were admitted to hospitals across the country in the 24 hours till October 31 morning.
This year, 13,090 dengue patients were admitted to hospitals in DNCC, 12,077 in DSCC, 9,991 in Dhaka (outside city corporations), and 10,817 in Chattogram, among other areas.
At least 142 dengue patients died in hospitals in DSCC, 50 in DNCC, 13 in Dhaka (outside city corporations), 34 in Barishal (outside city corporations), 31 in Chattogram, and 18 in Khulna (outside city corporations).
