Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC) will connect southwest China, northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar which will create a geographical facilitation together with geopolitical tension in this sub-region. Significantly, It will create an economic belt moreover a forum for mitigating geopolitical issues. As Bangladesh and Myanmar have several geopolitical complexities, the BCIM economic corridor can be a way to enhance their relations. Beyond the prospects, Bangladesh will face various geopolitical challenges that may make their relations more unpleasant.
The BCIM economic corridor is basically an economic belt under the BRI ( Belt and Road Initiative) for national and regional economic activities that will increase the connectivity among shareholders, traders and national entities of member countries. The corridors may be designed so as to promote the opening up and development of isolated border regions, and to provide external connectivity from the sea to land-locked regions and countries. This corridor forms a platform for mutual benefits, creating supportive friends, reducing transportation costs, promoting cultural exchange, boosting up the national, regional and international trade etc.
Particularly, except China and India, Myanmar is more likely a rival state for Bangladesh in spite of having huge economic interaction. This is what, Its urgent to understand the geopolitical implication between Bangladesh and Myanmar via the incoming BCIM economic corridor.
However, every economic activity has political consideration or vice-versa. Although geopolitics basically indicates politics over geography, in a depth sense it is more than that. Geopolitics is the study of how geography and economics have an influence on politics and on the relations between nations. Therefore, Bangladesh-Myanmar economic activities through the BCIM economic corridor also have geopolitical implications for their close geographical and geostrategic location. Nevertheless, the question arises, How can Bangladesh and Myanmar build a good relation through the BCIM economic corridor? and Why will the BCIM economic corridor become so challenging geopolitically for making a good relation between Bangladesh and Myanmar?
The BCIM economic corridor will create regional integration and connectivity through which Bangladesh can take a scope of boosting its trade with Southwest China, Southeast India, closely linked Myanmar and other South Asian countries. This regional connectivity may help Bangladesh to grow as the transportation centre in the Asia Pacific region. Energy cooperation between Bangladesh and Myanmar would solve the power insufficiency and establishment of special economic zones would attract huge investments from home and abroad and contribute to a more balanced trade for Bangladesh.
The geographical position of Bangladesh will help Myanmar to reach their products in Nepal, Bhutan and India by the easiest way. Similarly, Bangladesh will get access to the market of Thailand, Laos, Malaysia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, Brunei and some other parts through Myanmar.
The BCIM economic corridor will be beneficial for infrastructure development and trade. Bangladesh and Myanmar, as Chinas close neighbor and trusted friend, shall take an even more favorable posture to make good use of "Chinese opportunities. Furthermore, Myanmar and Bangladesh can take initiative of FDI among them based on their specialised sectors. As close distance facilitates huge economic possibilities geographically or geopolitically, BCIM-EC will create a win-win situation for Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Myanmar on its part can benefit from linkages with India and Bangladesh by reducing some of its overdependence on China. Besides, Myanmar has huge agro-based land and for increasing its productivity they need technology. Here, Bangladesh can help Myanmars agro-based industries by giving her expertise.
However, its very difficult and challenging for Bangladesh to build a good relationship with Myanmar without counting the geopolitical tensions between them. Such as _ the Rohingya crisis is a major issue for destabilising their border areas and increasing the geopolitical rivalries between them. Many Rohingya people are involved in various criminal activities like murder, smuggling, prostitution, drugs dealing, small arms proliferation in the border of Bangladesh. Beside that, Bangladesh has been facing so many challenges for Rohingya repatriation, maintaining their livelihood and their misdeeds.
Even so, the Myanmar government is ready to accept the fact but reluctant to solve the issue. For this reason, it is very uncertain whether Bangladesh and Myanmar will reach a common understanding in BCIM-EC.
Bangladesh will face highly security threat due to the border disputes by the insurgency groups of Myanmar. In Myanmar, the BCIM-EC will cross the province of Shan, Chin and Rakhine state which are situated in constant threat by various insurgency groups. The Chin National Front (CNF), the Chin National Army( CNA), the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and various liberation groups are often engaged in war against its government.
Therefore, because of the internal instability of Myanmar, the implementation of BCIM-EC and its execution will face constant threats continuously. As Bangladesh and Myanmar share their borders with each other, those insurgent groups of Myanmar will get easy access to Bangladesh by which they can surely conduct their illegal business.
Moreover, there are some mistrust issues between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Myanmars government used to portray Bangladesh as a country with rapid population growth. These Bangladeshis will grab their land in near future and their culture and religion will be attacked by these Bangladeshi people. These were the propaganda by the military for their survival which was repeated negative propaganda that antagonized some of them and developed hatred among them.
Myanmar economy is mainly led by China and India. They have huge investments in Myanmar and still they have plans for future investment. The big powers have a sharp eye on Myanmar for investment and trade. Myanmar also has the intention to engage with regional or global superpowers rather than less powerful states. In this way, Bangladesh will get minimum priority in Myanmar by competing with the powerful states. China and India maintain a good relation with Myanmar as they have massive geopolitical interests there. Thats why, China and India do not pay any attention when the Rohingya repatriation debates are arised.
Overall, the BCIM-EC, on one hand, will create a beneficial economic zone through which Bangladesh and Myanmar can enhance their cooperation in several sectors. On the other hand, there is some risk and uncertainty about the implementation of a successful BCIM-EC for the different geopolitical interests of member countries. Specifically, India and China and their geopolitical consideration in this region will play a very significant role for making and breaking the relations between Bangladesh and Myanmar.
Yet, there is an imperative possibility to make it happen. Bangladesh and Myanmar have to build trust between them. Based on their trust, they need to sacrifice some of their interest for their own sake. Both countries have to understand that they need cooperation, not competition. India and China need to think neutrally to solve the Rohingya crisis. India and China have to pay keen eye to Myanmars insurgency groups before going to a regional integration. Last but not the least, as the BCIM-EC initiative opens the door of cooperation, continuous diplomatic negotiations and agendas are needed for making Bangladesh and Myanmar as a trusted, cooperated and dynamic close friend.
The writer is an undergraduate student at the Department of International Relations, University of Rajshahi
