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Fear for fresh Rohingya influx still persists  

Published : Saturday, 24 February, 2024 at 12:00 AM  Count : 1031
Alaul Alam
“In the bordering areas Bangladeshi forces have been on alert to tackle the intrusion of the people of Myanmar who constantly find scopes to take shelter in Bangladesh to escape fighting”

Myanmar, a country located in the South Asian regions is gripped with alarming internal conflicts affecting its bordering countries significantly causing a pressing concern in the South Asian geopolitics. The fresh civil war in Myanmarhas begun with an armed operation named as the Operation 1027 by the three Brotherhood Alliance composed of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Taang National Liberation Army (TNLA) to assert and defend territory against Myanmar military incursions, eradicate oppressive military dictatorship.

Since the military junta seizing power by toppling the so-calleddemocratic government spearheaded by Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, they have been in deep trouble not only to pacify different ethnic rebel groups but also to maintain a balanced diplomatic relation with the world. In most cases, the janta government in Myanmar has been isolated from the diplomatic point of view over the years.

Evidently, the resistance against Myanmar military janta is decades old but this time the janta is encountering one of the worst situations and losing the control of many regions inside the country. The Arakan army has become one of the most powerful ethnic armed forces expanding its administrative control being strengthened with many other rebel groups, which are forcing the janta government to retreat. However, internal power game between the janta government and different ethnic rebel groups can be a boon for neither ordinary people nor the ethnic groups until the crisis is resolved by the international community.

The ongoing conflict in Myanmar has affected the people of Bangladesh who are residing near Bangladesh-Myanmar border resulting in significant losses. The intense fighting between the Myanmar janta and the insurgent Arakan army in Rakhine and Chin States has created a serious security threat to Bangladesh.

Bangladeshi border communities are passing days with fear and uncertainty facing a grave challenge to their sustenance due to the destruction of agricultural land and vegetations enduring the ongoing civil war in Myanmar. The sound of gunfights amid the escalating clashes in Myanmar is keeping the residents near bordering areas stay up alarmingly.

Recently mortar shells falling inside the Bangladeshi territory has caused two deaths and multiple injuries. In the bordering areas Bangladeshi forces have been on alert to tackle the intrusion of the people of Myanmar who constantly find scopes to take shelter in Bangladesh to escape fighting that may add more burden for Bangladesh impacting not only the national security but also economy, and geopolitics.

Bangladesh has been bearing the brunt over the yearsdue to Rohingya influx in 2017. Sources estimated that around 1.2 million Rohingya people entered the country as refugees being forcefully displaced from Myanmar following the military aggression in the Rakhine State. The world saw huge atrocities committed against the Rohingya people in Myanmar and on a humanitarian ground Bangladesh government opened the border and gave shelter to the displaced Rohingya refugees. However, in the last seven years Rohingya repatriation is yet to be resolved. The country is facing many challenges as the Rohingya repatriation process is becoming prolonged due to the indifferent attitudes of the Myanmar junta government.

According to different sources, crimes like murdering, kidnapping, raping, human trafficking and involving in narcotics trade, etc. have recorded in different Rohingya camps in recent years burdening the countrys smooth progress. Besides, the country sees rising environmental and financial impacts to accommodate more than one million Rohingya people for the last seven years although it was promised from international community that concerted efforts would be taken to send the Rohingya people back to Myanmar ensuring their rights and safety.

It is obvious that over the years the cooperation of the international community to Bangladesh about Rohingya repatriation has reduced. Not only that, the financial supports of the donor countries to Bangladesh to sustain a huge number of Rohingya people has declined, they have promised. Gradually, it is becoming difficult for the host country toaccommodate and provide essentials for Myanmar nationals.

In the South Asian geopolitics both India and China confront each other from opposite direction. However, they expressed concern over the ethnic conflict in Myanmar and promised to work on accelerating the repatriation process but the question is pertinent to raise; how far they are committed to resolve the Rohingya crisis? The dual role of some neighboring countries has deepened the Rohingya crisis further as they are not only balancing the relationship with the host country but also extending cooperation to the military jantasupplying weapons to led the country to an uncertain civil war.

Evidently, international community has hardly done enough for Rohingya repatriation, rather they are highly motivated with their geopolitical interests and in many cases, they are found reluctant to condemn the Myanmar junta and side with the Rohingya.

As a host country Bangladesh sees the growth of regional interests of the major players such as China, India, Japan and the US. Political analysts think that the Rohingya repatriation process has lost its focus due to the global leaders much concentration currently on the Russia-Ukraine war, which makes the Rohingya crisis worsen. Things have become more frustrating to send back the Rohingya people to Myanmaras the ongoing civil war in Myanmar has created uncertainty about Rohingya repatriation process.

The assurance of China to support Bangladesh in repatriation of the Rohingya people to Rakhine at the end of the civil war raises a ray of hope to resolve the Rohingya crisis although commitment and reality stand far aside deepening uncertainty in reaching to a negotiating table. However, strong diplomacy finds no alternative to accelerate the repatriation process and in this regard, ASEAN countries will have a pivotal role in strengthening the negotiations regarding Rohingya crisis.

However, Bangladesh has been struggling with the refugee issue over the years. So, it sees no way except taking stern actions to prevent Rohingya intrusion due to the ongoing instability in Myanmar. Now there is no chance to show the generosity the country did in 2017. The security in the bordering areas with Myanmar has strengthened and deployed more armed forces and coast guard to be on alert so that no one from Myanmar can intrude to Bangladesh.

As challenges including the fresh refugee influxes and safety of residents living near the bordering areas with Myanmar persist, first priority is to prevent Myanmar nationals from crossing the border of Bangladesh ensuring intelligence gathering and strengthening border security. Besides, it is a must to strengthen diplomatic policies to accelerate the repatriation of the Rohingya people. Finally, Rohingya crisis has been one of the global problems; so, this should be kept under global focus.
 
The writer teaches at Prime University. He is also a Research Scholar at the IBS



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