Tuesday | 10 December 2024 | Reg No- 06
বাংলা
   
Tuesday | 10 December 2024 | Epaper

Myanmar's instability poses a threat to the region

Published : Monday, 4 December, 2023 at 12:00 AM  Count : 570
NUR-MOHAMMAD SHEIKH
One month into "Operation 1027," the Myanmar Junta is still suffering. On October 27, the Arakan Army (AA), the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the tripartite Brotherhood Alliance (3BA), jointly launched the anti-regime operation by attacking and seizing regime bases and towns throughout the northern states of Shan, Kachin, and Rakhine, as well as the upper regions of Sagaing and Mandalay.

A number of opposition groups are collaborating with the Brotherhood Alliance's operation, including the Karenni Nationalities Defense Force (KNDF), one of the nation's most potent ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), and the People's Defense Force groups (PDFs) under the civilian National Unity Government (NUG).

Thus far, the operation has made significant progress. Many army divisions have given up without a fight. According to the coalition, over a dozen towns and at least 303 junta outposts-including important stations in advantageous locations-have already been taken over in the northern Shan, Rakhine, and Kayah states.

The key trade routes between the nation and China-the Mandalay-Lashio-Muse Road, the Mandalay-Lashio-Chin-hwe-Haw Road, and the Chin Shwe Haw-have been successfully blocked by rebel groups in Northern Shan State.

In Chin State and Sagaing Region, Chin National Army (CNA) have stepped up attacks on regime targets and bases in Falam and Tedim and took complete control of the town of 'Reh Khaw Da' in Falam Township on the Indian border on Nov. 13.

In accordance with Operation 1027, the Karenni Army, the Karenni National People's Liberation Front, and the PDF jointly launched Operation 1111, a massive anti-regime offensive in Kayah State on November 11. The operation involved attacking and seizing over twenty junta bases and outposts in the Loikaw and Demoso townships of Kayah State, as well as the nearby Pekon Township in southern Shan State. As the combined rebel organizations strive to take control of the state capital, "Loikaw," fierce fighting is still going on in Kayah.

Expanding Operation 1027, the AA began attacking military sites in Rakhine State on November 13, breaking an unofficial ceasefire that had been reached with the regime a year earlier. Thus far, the AA claimed to have attacked and captured 44 junta bases and  control of "Pauktaw town," which is close to Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State, where fierce combat persists.

According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, as of Nov. 23, around 335,000 people had been forced to flee their homes due to the fighting that had escalated since Oct. 26. These people were spread throughout several states and regions. The conflict and associated insecurity, according to the UN humanitarian agency, had reportedly resulted in 263 injuries and nearly 200 civilian deaths. More junta artillery and airstrikes that have caused injuries and deaths in northern Shan, Chin, and Rakhine states are thought to have resulted in even more civilian casualties than the official amount.

The junta is definitely experiencing an existential crisis. The trajectory has shifted in favor of the NUG, the PDFs, and the ethnic armed groups. However, the effects won't be limited to Myanmar; there could be security threats throughout the entire area. The insurrection, ammunition, and weaponry flows are about to increase. This precarious state is likely to be exploited by various militant groups.

As some experts say that, the US's 'Burma Act' is in action here, i.e., to oust military govt., establish democracy and support opposition of military with 'non-lethal' assistance, which has a lot of controversy in its definition. The non-lethal assistance included C-130 transport aircraft, a plane that has been frequently modified to carry bombs and artillery for the Republic of Congo.

As Myanmar remains the playground of China-Russia, the nerves war between the Capitalist USA led pole and the Socialist China-Russian alliances surely to be further fueled when the USA will try to intervene in China-Russian domination.

The USA's affinity with South and South-East Asia is another geopolitical factor to take into account. India was seen by the US as its most trustworthy partner, behind Pakistan. After India was added to the new geopolitical and economic zone alongside Brazil, China, and Russia, Washington was rarely able to turn around on its friends in South Asia. In addition, Delhi showed reluctance in response to Russia's participation in Ukraine over the previous year, even though Washington and its allies urged them to. As a result, the United States of America must be searching for a new watchtower in Southern Asia. The inter-regional political alternation will be a big threat for surrounding countries if the USA chooses Myanmar as their fort.

Moreover, the hidden far-reaching diplomatic aim (not sure if any) is to set-up US's favorable govt.  base in Myanmar, the landscape surrounded by China and India, will sure to call global unrest and the possibility of another war game can't be ignored. A political dialogue among all stakeholders in Myanmar, to resolve the crisis, thus can be the best possible solution.

In an interview on Nov. 27 at NUG's Japan headquarters, near Tokyo's Ikebukuro district, Zin Mar Aung, the foreign minister of the National Unity Government (NUG) informed that, NUG is preparing for face-to-face dialogue with the military regime, and is close to completing its vision for the future of the country and how it would function as a federal state.

"We have already sent our ground rules for dialogue to the junta. But it is not yet a conducive environment for dialogue," she said. In order to make this happen, we have preconditions, such as the junta following the five-point consensus, she added.

To make this happen, international and regional actors, the UN, ASEAN, and surrounding nations should act immediately and take the lead. Since stability in Myanmar has a direct impact on South and South-East Asian regional's peace and safety.

The writer is an associate professor & security affairs analyst



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