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China’s Afghan challenges

Published : Thursday, 26 August, 2021 at 12:00 AM  Count : 1236

China’s Afghan challenges

China’s Afghan challenges

Gambles in the graveyard for superpowers: Military adventurism, either to conquer or control Afghanistan had begun way back in the 19th century with the British colonial power. However, in less than half a century both Anglo-Afghan campaigns had ended in disasters. Almost a century later, had arrived the Soviets, and the communist tragedy was even harsher this time. They left bag and baggage barely within a decade.

A little over 10 years later came the Americans, they didn't want to occupy or conquer the harsh geographical terrain. They, however, engaged in a rather 'holy--cum--humanitarian' effort to reform Afghanistan under a hollow rhetoric called 'Nation Rebuilding'. The so called re-building campaign followed an indiscriminate bombing of the country--how can you rebuild unless you destroy it first?

Whatever, the Brits, Soviets or Americans--have all carried out futile military campaigns - to establish a permanent foothold in Afghanistan in the last 150 years. Who is next in experimenting with grandeur schemes in the graveyard of superpowers? Following the enactment of Biden's Saigon-saga at Kabul, now it is China or none at all. May sound a sweeping statement, but which other regional or global power is there to experiment their luck in Afghanistan.

However, under the fast-transforming regional and geopolitical events, Afghanistan may appear a difficult terrain to negotiate with under the new Taliban regime - but it has always remained a treasure--trove--terrain for the Chinese leadership despite all proven complexities.

Security cards on play:
While regional tensions keep erupting along Afghanistan's shared borders with Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan on the north, shared border with China is not too far away. Moreover, the approximate 50 miles shared border between the two countries had opened up an unofficial route for breeding Afghan insurgents long ago. least to say, detention camps housing over a million Chinese Muslim Uyghurs are not too far from the shared border.

China’s Afghan challenges

China’s Afghan challenges

With the radical Islamist Talibans in power, a security threat is fast creeping in, enough to steal the sleep of Chinese leadership. What we have often failed to notice is that successive puppet Afghan regimes aided by US military presence never exposed China directly to the 'Jihadist threat'. The security issue is likely to turn into a big challenge.

So far, Afghan conflict hadn't spilled over within its neighbouring Central Asian States. Beijing must have played a decisive diplomatic role to maintain regional stability among the Afghan bordering countries. An apprehension which cannot be wiped out right away , in case Beijing joins in the peacekeeping role in Afghanistan through whatever platform, and in whatever multilateral mechanism it would potentially hamper Chinese ambitions to materialise in Afghanistan.

Lest we forget, despite launching a series of C+ C5 meetings with Central Asian Countries on Afghanistan, Xi's men evidently failed to deliver a sustainable security plan as of now.

Myths surrounding Sino -Afghan relations:
The myth that China's key concern in Afghanistan are mainly focused on border and security concerns--have outlived its practicality long ago. Chinese ambitions had been laid bare when cargo flights between the two countries commenced in 2018. Moreover, a cargo train corridor already exists between the two countries via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Bilateral trade had doubled to $ 629 million before the pandemic had set in 2020.

Xi's trade policy makers have been remarkably prompt, but those developments took place against the backdrop of US presence and non--Taliban regimes. Economic and trade calculations are likely to turn complex for China unless the profit-pie is not shared for mutual benefits. Concurrently, the Taliban leadership may well play the Uyghur card in the negotiating table. Given the persistent and disciplined Taliban ambitions, the Casino Royale scene is all set.

Taking BRI to the next stage
As far as China's (Belt and Road Initiative) BRI is concerned, the country mustn't forget US & NATO manifestly allowed China to spread the reach of BRI through Balochistan province and Central Asia. An extended BRI road to linkup with Central Asia can well be built, but who would deny Afghanistan's strategic geographical location on that note.

Now stop here for a moment, for China, Afghanistan is neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh to smoothly execute a communications development project. The roughly 10, 000 miles of roadway reportedly constructed with US funds in the past two decades are in shambles. Poor conditions and government corruption are proven setbacks. More to it, it requires millions of dollars to pave even a mile through mountainous region in the land of the unbeatable.

The BRI is much more than just connectivity by establishing roads, airports, railroads, and sea or land ports. Most importantly, in the Afghani case BRI aims to fast-track trade and exchanges between China and Iran through just a single land route, instead of passing through three separate countries in the north (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan). Beijing's growing economic-security-military ties with Tehran needs the new regime to set up a foothold eyeing the Middle East.

The challenge here: Participation in the BRI demands that the new Taliban is more open to changes and conduct reforms that are in line with China's interests.

Challenges in mines and minerals:
Challenges are similar exploring Afghanistan's reported $ 3 trillion worth of tempting Rare Earth reserves. The country's barren and harsh rocky terrains - parched and lifeless as they appear to the naked eye is rich in resources such as copper, gold, oil, natural gas, uranium, bauxite, coal, iron ore, rare earths, lithium, chromium, lead, zinc, gemstones, talc, sulphur, travertine, gypsum and marble. In terms of harnessing afghan mineral resources, Xi's men will have to formulate win-win strategies.

Though there were political and security reasons to have suspended the Chinese petroleum project in Afghanistan, but the Chinese grand scheme to tap into Afghan Copper wealth at Mes Aynak is a tale of poor planning in project implementation. That said--not indiscriminate extraction of Afghan resources, the Chinese will have to focus on building an extractive industry in Afghanistan as a whole.  By definition, the extractive industry consists of any operations that remove metals, mineral and aggregates from earth. Processes include oil and gas extraction, mining, dredging and quarrying to all until the finished product is ready for export. Markedly, this sector is also a gold mine for job creation for the Afghanis.

Mines and minerals are all there. However, not to forget past occupying forces were not able to make much use of Afghan minerals since the first feasibility studies were carried out by the Soviets in the early 80s.

The 'Pakistan factor' in Afghanistan:
Despite shouldering the burden giving shelter to some 2 million registered and non--registered Afghan refugees in the past forty plus years, I can't think of another country that has proved to be a time-tested close ally of Afghanistan. With or without Taliban government in power, successive Pakistan governments have exercised incredible influence in Afghan domestic politics, governance and policy making. Moreover, the Pashtuns cutting across Pak-Afghan borders have always been a common powerful community to reckon with.

However, ranging from religion, culture, ethnicity to food and looks to whatever common idiosyncrasies shared between the two countries--the new Taliban leadership will have to resourcefully engage Pakistan in order to re-shape Afghanistan in a new pro-China look. More to it, be it Pakistan's military or the development sector, few or perhaps no country in the world knows better how to work best with China.

The new Taliban regime falls fairly short in knowledge and experience working with their Chinese counterparts. In the political power play, a big challenge for China in Afghanistan would be how effectively it incorporates Pakistan in establishing an inclusive government in Kabul. Moreover, given Afghanistan's overtly divisive, multiethnic and tribal society, I can't think of any other country to Pakistan in aiding the Taliban leadership to unite all fractions under a single umbrella.  

No need to elaborate on Pak-China ties, just take a glance in the regional map and the unconquerable Afghanistan is there - with all potentials as well as predicaments--to emerge as the second most important ally after Pakistan to ensure China's geopolitical superiority in Central Asia. Take it as a personal rhetoric of this writer:  China needs to create a deep state in the likes of a mini--Pakistan in Afghanistan--so to ensure economic and political interests in that country are efficiently taken care of.

Who knows, Kabul may become the first city to accommodate both a China and a Pakistan town.

Can China do it?
Never make a prediction, and the best way to predict the future is to create it. Let China create its imminent or distant future in Afghanistan. Xi's country falls no short of academics, astute diplomats, intellectuals, policy makers and also fortune tellers. Gone are the days of military adventurism, and with a power vacuum and politically fluid situation prevailing in today's Afghanistan, there are a myriad of challenges for the Chinese to flourish through.

The bottom-line: I have penned on China's association and challenges related to a country, often described as the graveyard for empires and superpowers.
Can China re-define Afghanistan on its own terms?
The writer is assistant editor,
The Daily Observer  











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