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Looking beyond Quad debate in Dhaka

Published : Wednesday, 19 May, 2021 at 12:00 AM  Count : 4713

Looking beyond Quad debate in Dhaka

Looking beyond Quad debate in Dhaka

Chinese ambassador Li Jiming's remark in a press conference on May 10, 2021 picked up debate in the media. The Ambassador replied to a question that it would not be a good idea for Bangladesh to participate in a small club of Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) known as Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, briefly called the Quad. Joining the Quad may "substantially damage relations with China". This was at the centre of the debate.

There were other questions from journalists present in the press conference, looks important in Bangladesh's perspective, like the repatriation of Rohingyas, Teesta Embankment Project (TEP) etc. In reply to question on Rohingya repatriation, the ambassador said that he did not see any possibility of holding a tripartite meeting in the "foreseeable future" and has no plan to hold such meeting among China, Myanmar and Bangladesh. Does it indicate China's disinterest in Rohingya repatriation? Talking on the TEP the ambassador opined, "Bangladesh, as a lower riparian country, has a legitimate right to take up a project on the River Teesta". Out of couple of issues discussed in the press conference, Quad question captured media attention presumably for its international prominence.

It was also mentioned in the media reports that Quad countries often pursue Bangladesh's participation in the Quad platform. Bangladesh's Foreign Minister said that as a sovereign country, Bangladesh maintains independent foreign policy positions. In the midst of continued debate, the Chinese Ambassador met Bangladesh's Foreign Minister on May 12, 2021 and presented an explanation about his remark. According to the Foreign Minister, the ambassador claimed what he expressed to the press was his 'personal views' making 'no suggestions' to the Bangladesh government. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs gave further clarification on May 13, 2021 saying that "China was, is and will remain committed to its principle not to interfere in other countries' domestic affairs."
Media published US State Department's statement over the ambassador's remark. The statement said, 'We have taken note of that statement from the PRC ambassador to Bangladesh. What we would say is that we respect Bangladesh's sovereignty, and we respect Bangladesh's right to make foreign policy decisions for itself.'

Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad led by the USA, was a Japanese initiative in 2007 to from an informal strategic consultative platform between the USA, Australia, Japan and India. After a decade of inactivity, Quad revived after 2017 under the Trump administration, again at Japan's initiative. Quad had its "first-ever leader-level summit" on March12, 2021 with focus on collective effort to fight Corona pandemic.

After the summit Quad leaders issued a joint statement entitled 'The Spirit of Quad'. The statement besides the focus on fighting the Corona pandemic pledged "to strengthen cooperation on the defining challenges � promoting?a free, open?rules-based order, rooted in?international law to advance?security and prosperity and counter threats to both?in the Indo-Pacific and beyond." Committed to support "freedom of navigation and over flight, peaceful resolution of disputes, democratic values, and territorial integrity."

The security dialogue was paralleled by the naval Exercise Malabar which began as bilateral naval drill between the USA and India in 1992, suspended after India's nuclear test in 1998 and resumed after 9/11 when India joined the US' "global war on terror".
Exercise Malabar is not mandated by the Quad. It has been a regular annual naval event of the countries who are also members of the Quad. Japan joined the naval exercise in 2007, the year Quad was formed. USA, JAPAN and India have been regular participants since 2007. Australia participated in 2007 and 2020. Exercise Malabar is a multilateral naval drill outside the Quad mandate although the media often reports it as 'Quad Naval Drill or Exercise' and China also views it as such. The exercise has been conducted in the waters abutting the Indian and the Pacific Ocean like the Bay of Bengal, Philippine Sea, Sea of Japan, Arabian Sea etc except the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

China opposed the formation of Quad. It issued diplomatic protest notes to the Quad founding members from the understanding that the naval powers are ganging up against China to undermine its interests. Political challenges from either side have brought in heightened naval diplomacy into play to back up respective political resolve. While naval diplomacy is getting more intense over expanded horizon, the Quad predicts a potential expansion with the New Zealand, South Korea and Vietnam which China views a drive to encircle it geographically.

While things were happening around the Pacific waters, it was unknown until the Chinese Ambassador's press conference that the Quad's potential expansion would be touching the shores of Bangladesh without being a consequential player in the Indo-Pacific rivalry. ASEAN countries in direct dispute with China are not being pulled-in to join the Quad. Joining or not joining the Quad is a country's interest bearing independent foreign policy decision.

USA, the lead in the Quad is maintaining a cautious geostrategy in the Indo-Pacific at the backdrop of evolving geopolitics. For example, USA has not conducted Exercise Malabar in the South China Sea or in the East China Sea. Australia left the platform in 2008 and rejoined after the Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd (2007-2010) left office. Japan's Quad initiative originated from humanitarian consideration after tsunami in 2004.

After the scuffle at the Galwan valley in June 2020, India is pursuing a naval alliance under the Quad to limit China within the South China Sea. India is also trying to roll back Chinese influence in the South Asia taking her small neighbours into confidence. The communiqué in diplomatic nice ties issued after the leader level summit did not mention China anywhere but terms like exercising 'freedom of navigation', 'over flight' etc have suggestions against China.

Apart from the political and military rivalry there is trade competition among the countries. China, given the size of its economy and industrial capacity is a source of major support to industries in many countries. Trade competition and mutual dependence for trade are inseparable. For example, India's call for 'boycott China' after the Galwan valley incident could not yield desired results because of their shared business interests. Trade between US and China continues despite the trade war between the two is another example of mutual dependence for trade.

While moves across the chess board are getting more and more contested, a sliver line is noticed in a statement issued by the China's Ministry of Defence at the backdrop of UK's carrier strike group sailing on May 18, 2021 for the Indo-Pacific waters. The statement mentioned the UK's deployment as "interfering in regional affairs under the pretext of 'freedom of navigation' and damaging the common interests of regional countries." We have been so far taking notes of 'common disputes' between China and its neighbours on the South China Sea and East China Sea. It is attention-grabbing to understand the 'common interest of regional countries' in China's perspective. It will be more interesting to observe how China works it out taking regional countries into confidence and mitigate their concern.
Mohammad Abdur Razzak is a retired Commodore of the Bangladesh navy









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