Armenia-Azerbaijan war: Equation of profit and loss
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. On September 27, the conflict erupted at larger scale. However, it is true that the region is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia have recently signed a peace agreement to end the military conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to the agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh will remain in the hands of Azerbaijan.
Meanwhile, about 20 per cent of Azerbaijan's territory has been illegally occupied by Armenia for nearly three decades. However, in this war, Azerbaijan took control of 300 areas of Karabakh. In addition to this agreement, there have been three previous ceasefire agreements between the two countries. Twice mediated by Russia and once mediated by America. But all the contracts were broken within a few minutes. Some experts say that the recent deal will not break so easily. On the other hand, another group says that it will also be temporary deal like the previous agreements.
Armenia did not sign the agreement intentionally, but because of military pressure of Azerbaijan. In fact, the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was forced to sign the agreement. Armenian Prime Minister described the deal as "indescribably painful". Besides, a large number of people gathered in the Armenian capital to oppose the agreement. When you calculate the profit and loss of the contract, you will understand who the real winner is and who the loser is. It remains to be seen whether other neighbouring states will be able to reap the benefits.
First of all, let's look at the profit and loss of Azerbaijan. According to the agreement, those who are staying in the place at this moment will be there. In the war, Azerbaijan took control of 300 areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Besides, Armenia will hand over some more territories to them. Therefore, it can be said that Azerbaijan has regained about 80-85% of the land that they lost in 1991.
Meanwhile, when it comes to calculating the profit and loss, the name Turkey comes up automatically. Turkey's relations with Azerbaijan are ethnic and historic. They are called 'two states one nation'. Turkey truly believes them as a brotherly country. They also have some borders with Azerbaijan. Besides, the country is now the main gas exporter to Turkey. The corridor from Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan will benefit Turkey the most. This will enable Turkey to reach the Caspian Sea via Armenia and Azerbaijan. As a result, Turkey's trade relations with Central Asian countries will increase.
Another great advantage of the Turks in this war is that they have been able to show their technological achievements. Turkish drones have played the biggest role in the victory of the Azerbaijan. There is no doubt that the success of Turkish drones will increase the demand for their drones in the international market. Several countries have already expressed their interest in buying the drone.
Even though there have been three previous peace agreements in the region, all of which failed within a few minutes--this time the agreement is still successful. Many experts are giving this credit to Turkey. Above all, the Turks have been able to prove themselves militarily and diplomatically efficient and successful in this war. According to the agreement, the Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan has also been recognized.
The loss of these two allies is much insignificant. The loss for Azerbaijan is: Azerbaijan officially owns the entire region. But they did not get full ownership or control over a small part of the region for at least five years. And considering the loss of the Turks, it can be seen that although the Turks cooperated with Azerbaijan from the beginning of the war, no such agreement was reached between them. Although it is assumed that the two countries will always be beside each other. The agreement also calls for a joint exercise with Russia, but Turkish soldiers may not be able to go to Karabakh. The Turks are sceptical about that.
Considering the benefits of Armenia, the part which Russia will control, it is assumed that they (Armenia) may control through Russia. Besides, at the rate at which Turkey was cooperating with Azerbaijan, Armenia was surely to lose the war. So from that point of view, they have been spared massive military casualties. And an analysis of their losses shows that they will no longer be able to rule the areas. Besides, all the expenses of the war, from the purchase of arms are a loss for them.
Meanwhile, Russia is the country played an important role as a mediator between these two countries. Russia's role in this conflict is varied and sometimes contradictory. Apart, Russia has bilateral relations with Armenia and also has military bases in the country. Moreover, it provide security assistance to Armenia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
On the other hand, Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. So, even for business reasons Russia does not want to lose its relation by further interfering within a country.
Russia also has several agreements with Turkey. If Russia goes against Azerbaijan, it will go against Turkey, which Russia does not want. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey have arms trade with Israel. So it can be said that Israel will also stand by the Azeri and the Turks. Above all, Russia alone will not help the Armenians. So if we think about Russia's gains and losses, it will be seen that there is no loss here. Instead, the country sells arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another advantage of them is that they have established military bases in the region. They have already deployed 1,960 soldiers to the region.
The writer is a student, Department of Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Dhaka