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Trump gains in 9 of 12 swing states, but Biden still leads in 10 of them

Published : Tuesday, 27 October, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 244

WASHINGTON, Oct 26: With just eight days to go before the election, both national poll and swing state surveys make it clear the race is tightening.
President Donald Trump gained on his Democratic challenger Joe Biden in national polling averages, and in nine of 12 contested states. But Biden still holds a sizable lead in the national polls and is still ahead of Trump in 10 of the 12 states that could decide the election.
Biden's average lead is only 3 percentage points or more in five of the swing states, but those include the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin that Trump flipped in 2016. And while Trump grew his modest lead in Ohio and cut Biden's leads in Arizona, Florida and Georgia further down to size, he also lost ground in Texas and Iowa.
The USA TODAY average of averages is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics (RCP) and FiveThirtyEight.
A set of new polls show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a narrow lead - or a tie - with President Donald Trump in the Southern states of Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, a potentially promising sign for Biden's odds of winning the White House.
In this election cycle, political analysts consider Florida and North Carolina to be swing states - and Texas and Georgia to be possible swing states, as well. Considering that Trump won all of them in 2016 - including outstripping Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Texas by 9 percentage points - the new polling speaks to the president's vulnerabilities as Election Day swiftly approaches.
The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker polls show Biden leading Trump 50 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in Florida; Biden over Trump in North Carolina 51 percent to 47 percent; and Biden tied with Trump 49-49 in Georgia.  The results are close enough that Trump could regain his advantage ahead of November 3, but it is striking to see Biden performing so well in states that Trump easily won before, and to see a Democratic candidate putting up big numbers in a region that has skewed Republican for decades.
In a broader average of recent polls tracked by FiveThirtyEight, as of October 25, Biden leads in Florida by 2.4 percentage points, and in North Carolina by 2.6 percentage points, but is essentially tied in Georgia, where he has a scant half-percentage point lead.   -USA TODAY






















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