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Is India losing its grip on South Asia?

Published : Thursday, 24 September, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 671

Is India losing its grip on South Asia?

Is India losing its grip on South Asia?

The month I cannot recall but for sure it was towards the end of 2015 when I visited Bhutan with my wife and my only daughter. As far as I can remember it was a seven-day trip. Little did we know how time did fly. The seven-day trip seemed to be very short-lived. It was a serene country with greenery all around. The country is beautiful but not bountiful. As a result it has to heavily depend on India. Things ranging from onion to fish pour into Bhutan through the porous borders of the two countries.

On the last day of our tour we were heading towards Paro for an overnight stay to catch the flight early in the morning the next day. As the Indian micro-bus with us was heading towards Paro two things caught my eyes: one is the river Wang Chhu that cuts through the heart of Thimpu. As we were crisscrossing between the mountains the murmuring transparent water of the river on the left was gliding over chunks of rocks and boulders.

During my stay I didn't notice any fishermen catching fish or any fish in the river. So, my curious mind was looking for an answer. I asked the driver Kinga about it. He said no fish was available as the river was originated from Himalayan glacier. Bhutan has to look forward to fish coming from the other side of the border. He gave me some additional information. He said, from a needle to serious treatment of a citizen his country had to depend upon India. The other thing that caught my eyes was a military camp.

I naturally thought it was Bhutanese military camp. It was a bit away from the road we were going along. So everything wasn't visible except some movements of people in uniform. Again I asked Kinga about the camp. What he answered raised my eyebrows. It wasn't Bhutanese army camp. It was Indian army camp. The army camp of one country inside the territory of another country! I became speechless for a while. Somehow I didn't know that Indian soldiers set up camps inside Bhutan. Coming back to Bangladesh I tried to dig the matter out. The camp that caught my eyes had 600 Indian troops.

In the rugged valley rising from Paro Bhutanese soldiers train with Indians on joint exercise. Bhutan has no air force. It relies on India and Nepal even for helicopter support. Indian soldiers are stationed there because of its proximity to China-Bhutan disputed western border. It is linked to Tibet and Siliguri corridor better known as Indian's chicken neck. In fact India made Bhutan a protectorate. Bhutan too hasn't ever tried to stand up to Indian hegemony as the landlocked country look forward to India for its support in tackling China-Bhutan border dispute that I have just mentioned. India didn't miss the chance and took the advantage of Bhutan's weakness. Bhutan understands it well how it is being exploited by its big neighbour.    

Even being under the defence cover of Indian army Bhutan has already showed some symptoms that this helpless country too wants to wriggle out of the sphere of influence of India. In June 2013 Bhutan accepted twenty buses from China as assistance. It also consented to open an embassy of China in Bhutan incurring the wrath of India. India in retaliation cut subsidy on Kerosene and cooking gas and engineered the next election in which a pro-Indian political force came to power. The new government in 2018 too tried to move away from India.

In the case of Nepal it is totally different from Bhutan. Since 1950s India had interfered in the affairs of Nepal but the emergence of China as a superpower has changed the political landscape of the region. Nepal after the communist government came to power tilted towards China. Not a single political event can be found in the history of Nepal since 1950 that India has not meddled in much to the frustration of Nepali politicians as well as general people. A strong anti-India sentiment runs through the veins of Nepali people. Virtually India's such hegemonic roles pushed Nepal into the fold of China.

As for Afghanistan, India needs this country for strategic reason. As Pakistan is its arch rival it will never allow Indian goods-laden vehicles to reach the landlocked country, Afghanistan.  India has left two other options to reach Afghanistan and to get connected to the central Asian countries. One is through China which is unlikely at present as it has a longstanding border dispute with China. Again India has rivalry with China over establishing supremacy in the region.

The other option is to use Iran's soil to get connected to Afghanistan and central Asia. India went for the latter option. Through Chabahar Port in the south-eastern Iran, India was to construct 628-km railroad along the Iran-Afghanistan border but China came in between the two countries with a 400 billion dollar deal. Iran gave in and the fresh Iranian deal with China ditched India out of Chabahar and the railroad project.

Sri Lanka also tilted to China in 2005 when Mahinda Rajapaksa-led government came to power for the first time.  China built Hambantota Port on the Southern coast of the country to expand its trade with East African countries. Later, as Sri Lanka couldn't pay off its loan instalment, China leased the port for 99 years sending India to boiling fury.

India shares a maritime boundary with the Maldives, an archipelago comprising 1,200 islands. Before pro-Indian Ibrahim Mohamed Solih came to power Abdullah Yameen during his regime allowed China to heavily invest in the island country. China, to bolster its Belt and Road Initiative, poured money into giant projects in the Maldives. Though a pro-Indian government is in power it is unlikely for the Maldives to come out of the debt trap of China. India too cannot come to the country's rescue.

Bangladesh has also a host of unresolved issues with India to be settled. Water sharing of trans-boundary rivers is one of the thorny issues. India has deprived Bangladesh of its fare share of international river water. Border killing is now an everyday affair. Over the past twenty years over one thousand innocent people have been killed in bordering areas. Trade deficit is growing wider with each day passing. Bangladesh also seems to be moving away from India. Bangladesh is a signatory to the Chinese deal of Belt and Road Initiative. Only Bhutan and India didn't sign the initiative. Bangladesh over the past few years has seen massive Chinese investment.

With the increasing footprint of China in the region, South Asian nations found a way out of India's sphere of influence. India seems to be losing its grip on the South Asian countries but China is emerging in the region with its debt trap.
The writer is a Senior Sub-Editor
at the Daily Observer   











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