Friday, 29 March, 2024, 10:56 AM
Advance Search
Home

‘Quad’ dilemma amongst member states

Published : Sunday, 12 July, 2020 at 12:00 AM  Count : 614

‘Quad’ dilemma amongst member states

‘Quad’ dilemma amongst member states

The idea of 'Quad' (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) has begun to shape the geo-political landscape of Indo-pacific amidst the Covid-19 Pandemic. The main architect of Quad was the Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who professes a region Indo-Pacific arc of democratic peace based on collective security and prosperity in response to the rise of China.  In 2007, underrating Abe's idea, Quad countries could not come to a consensus.  Its importance allays due to differing interests by the Quad countries at that time. Surprisingly, after one decade the Quad countries started to realize the importance of Quad security dialogue. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the re-emergence of 'Quad security dialogue' in global arena.

In pre-WWII, characterized by  weak economy, chagrined by imperial powers, strongly persuaded by Confucian folklore, China would pose a threat to the world's greatest maritime powers so quickly, which probably was not anticipated  by the world's super powers. The Chinese vagary, especially in the East and South China Sea, made the maritime powers to start ponder upon in response to China's assertiveness.

During the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Manila in May 25, 2007, Prime Ministers of Japan, Australia and India met with the then U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney at the sideline of summit and carried out first parley followed by a naval exercise in Indian Ocean comprising more than 25 naval ships and 20,000 personnel that was viewed by China as a containment, and China responded with démarche to each four countries.

Shinzo Abe devised the Quad as a classic strategic tool of "offshore balancing" against Beijing. Back in 2007, the world maritime powers judged China as 'rising economic power' which was not deemed as aggressive maritime power. So the quad countries raised many questions about the requirement of such dialogue. Some thought it to be an US led project, an alliance, an axis of democracies, a security diamond, or a way to contain China. There had been several debates at that time but no clear consensus came out as the proposal was mainly considered as the Japanese scheme against China, which had begun to threaten to rules-based order in the East and South China Sea. Moreover, when Shinzo Abe lost in the election, his proponent became reticent. Also USA didn't show much interest and of course, the relation between Australia and India was not that smooth at that time. Moreover, there are several mini-lateral groups already in existence amongst the Quad countries. So the novel initiative of Shinzo Abe Quad1.0 (first phase) survived roughly from mid-2006 to early 2008.In fact for the last one decade, there has been no de facto activities of Quad.

However, a question might be raised why Shinzo Abe assiduously kept on pursuing the need of propounding such Quad dialogue since long. The answer lies in the remarkable speech made by Shinzo Abe in Indian Parliament in 2007 where he brought some new concept such as  "confluence of the two seas coming into being", "broader Asia" and also referred "the Arc of Freedom and Prosperity". After winning for second time in 2012, Abe again started to advocate the importance of such dialogue. By 2017, Strategic and geopolitical situation in Indo-Pacific have gone tremendous change with the rise of China and its hegemonistic attitude in East and South China Sea. The geostrategic understanding of Quad countries has also changed on how to deal with China. As such, Quad concept as Quad2.0 revitalized amongst the strategists.

Till now, Quad held three dialogues without producing any binding official joint statement, yet it's gaining much attention in the current geopolitical discourses. One of the reasons it could be gaining momentum because the United States passed an 'Act 2018' and its Section 207 says, "the security dialogue between the United States, Australia, India, and Japan is vital to address pressing security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. By approving the above act, the US reaffirmed the need of 'security dialogue' with the Quad countries.  By enacting this act, US has clearly recognised the fact that China posed threat to US's global hegemony which US failed to realise back in 2007.

We need to find out why there is a fear of 'China's rise' and what makes the Quad countries to change their position over ten years. China claims almost all of 1.3 milion sq miles of South China Sea as its own sea area that literally stops other navies 'freedom of navigation'. As a result, in the East and South China Sea a new trend of security paradigm has emerged which has nuance difference from the traditional and conventional security threat, such as, making artificial lands in the disputed islands, construction of structure in the disputed islands, sinking of Vietnamese fishing trawler, refusal to solve dispute with ASEAN countries, not respecting the UN resolutions, refusal of 'freedom of navigation', etc.  These sorts of unconventional challenges, regional forcefulness and no respect towards rule of law made the rest of the world countries worried to exercise freedom of operations in the Indo-Pacific. The Chinese vagary in East and South China Sea, not only Japan, the most maritime powers has become concerned about the intention of China.

Over the past few decades, the rise of China both in terms of economic and military has emboldened their moral strength in the diplomatic sector. China now has the courage to lambast the nations those going against Chain's interests.   Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman Zhao Lijian recently warned UK to abandon cold war mentality and colonialist mindset on the issue of 3 million Hongkongers holding British National Overseas' passports. This is just cannot be considered as simple demarche, it reflected Chinese deep-rooted resentment against UK; in 1839, it was a humiliated defeat of China in Opium War and Hong Kong was ceded to UK.  

This year, Australia's call for independent inquiry into the origin of Covid-19, the China elicited with economic retaliation against Australia. The killing of 20 Indian soldiers by China, at the Himalayan border (Ladakh), China clearly sent a signal to India that any activities against the interests of China would further aggravate the situation. Covid-19 made the world great powers so shattered that it's no wonder that even in case of Chinese aggression; India may not find anyone beside her.

History has its own way of taking revenge. How the Chinese can forget the brutal atrocities carried out in China by imperial Japanese forces in 1931? In 1930s, Japan's industry was prospering and it needed raw materials to fuel its growing industry. Without any provocation, Japan invaded the Chinese Province of Manchuria in 1931 and in July 1937 attacked Nanking (Nanjing) and fought this war with exceptional brutality. Allegedly over 300,000 women and children are estimated to have been massacred, raped and killed. Japan was universally condemned at League of Nations. Japan was declared as international pariah, but it did not stop Japanese aggression against China.  

Japan's brutality was beyond anybody's imagination. The Chinese made Memorial Hall, a museum to memorialize those that were killed in the Nanjing Massacre by the Imperial Japanese Army in and around the then-capital of China, Nanjing, after it fell on December 13, 1937.Children were taught of their ravaged history that acts as a motivation to take revenge when the right opportunity come. Japan possibly did not also forget what they did in Nanking in 1937 and it would always hauntthe Japanese leaders.

Knowing very well the strength of Quad, China would prefer strategy of deception, which is articulated in the teachings of Sun Tsu's "Art of War'.  Chinese deception was successful in bringing cleavage amongst Quad countries. India remained preoccupied with Pakistan's terrorist threats and USA remained engaged with North Korea over nuclear threat.  In the midst of the shifting focus away from China, over the decades, China has stealthily built its both PLAN(People's Liberation Army, Navy) and strengthen its economic ties with Asia, Africa and Europe through 'Belt and Road Initiative' - a highly ambitious multitrillion economic project.  
 
USA now considers China as revisionist power, because of her claim over the most of South China Sea and her disputed claim on the various islands in South China Sea. China's aggressiveness compelled Quad countries to carry out freedom of operations by deploying their naval vessels in South China Sea. USA embarked on with its Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) where main aim is to ensure 'Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)'. It would likely to further strengthen the growing ties amongst the Quad countries in the future days. Shinzo Abe could predict the situation more than a decade ago, other countries started to realize it now.
Commodore Kazi Emdadul Haq (Retd) is Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Maritime Research and Development (BIMRAD)












Latest News
Most Read News
Editor : Iqbal Sobhan Chowdhury
Published by the Editor on behalf of the Observer Ltd. from Globe Printers, 24/A, New Eskaton Road, Ramna, Dhaka.
Editorial, News and Commercial Offices : Aziz Bhaban (2nd floor), 93, Motijheel C/A, Dhaka-1000.
Phone: PABX- 41053001-06; Online: 41053014; Advertisement: 41053012.
E-mail: info©dailyobserverbd.com, news©dailyobserverbd.com, advertisement©dailyobserverbd.com, For Online Edition: mailobserverbd©gmail.com
  [ABOUT US]     [CONTACT US]   [AD RATE]   Developed & Maintenance by i2soft