Viability of a future US military strike to Iran
Tension between Iran and US has shifted to a new dimension following a series of drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's largest and a few other smaller oil processing facilities on September 14. The recent attacks are a clear threat to world's energy security by cutting off 5 per cent global petroleum supply. Yemen's Houthi rebel-reportedly backed by Iran-has claimed its role in carrying out the attacks.
However, since the US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Deal or JCPOA last year, relations between the two countries have been heating up dangerously fast. Trump administration has taken the strategy to apply 'maximum pressure' on Iran. Moreover, the US has re-imposed additional crippling sanctions on the country delivering a blow to Iran's economy. Apparently, the purpose of the punitive actions to cave Iran in has backfired.
Iran has also frequently threatened to block the narrow Strait of Hormuz - the supply route of 20 per cent global oil. But recent development shows that Iran, with the help of its proxy forces, can even hamper oil production and supply in the region to a greater extent while chocking the global economy.
The recent drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities have pushed the US and its regional allies to seriously consider a military option. We, like many western powers believe that the US direct military engagement against Iran would be a military and geopolitical blunder. USA must not show any interest to engage in a proxy war on behalf of Saudi Arabia.
Following the latest series of drone attacks, the leaders of the rival countries must choose the option for holding meaningful dialogues. War cannot and should not be a solution to longstanding disputes.
The best option for Saudia Arabia right now is to hold dialogue with Houthi rebels instead of carrying out indiscriminate bombing operations over Yemen. If Houthis are truly the culprits, innocent Yemeni citizens should not become victims of Houthi crimes. Simultaneously, Iran also has an important role to de-escalate the warlike situation to have erupted in Saudi Arabia.
On the topic of a potential US military strike as a response, we believe US should rather get directly engaged in holding multiparty dialogues in the Middle East. US military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria have only resulted in massive scales of deaths, destruction and destabilisation. Additionally, US military strikes repeatedly failed to establish peace on anywhere around the world.
We expect, drawing humiliating lessons from the past US will refrain from choosing a military option against Iran. It is not viable on any account.