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Is US heading for war with Iran?

Published : Saturday, 18 May, 2019 at 12:00 AM  Count : 107

WASHINGTON, May 17: There are two competing narratives. The first, which is favoured by US President Donald Trump's administration, is that Iran is up to no good. Preparations are said to have been seen for a potential attack on US targets, though few details have been revealed publicly.
The US has moved reinforcements to the region; it is reducing its non-essential diplomatic personnel in Iraq; and it is reportedly dusting off war plans.
The message to Tehran is clear: any attack on a US target from whatever source, be it Iran or one of its many proxies or allies in the region, will be met by a significant military response.
The second narrative lays the blame for this crisis squarely at Washington's door.  Iran - not surprisingly - holds to this view, but so too do many domestic critics of the Trump administration's approach.
Indeed, to varying degrees many of Trump's key European allies share some of these concerns. According to this narrative, the "Iran hawks" in the Trump administration - people like National Security Adviser John Bolton, or Secretary of State Mike Pompeo - sense an opportunity.
Their goal, this narrative argues, is regime change in Tehran. And if maximum economic pressure does not work then they believe, military action is not ruled out in the appropriate circumstances.
These two narratives reflect different interpretations of the reality and, as so often, they play up certain facts and ignore others to make their case. But perceptions here matter just as much as reality. Indeed, in many ways they produce the reality.
And that reality is that a conflict between the US and Iran - albeit by accident rather than design - is more likely today than at any time since Trump took office. Tensions in the Middle East are certainly mounting.
Iran, its economy suffering from the re-imposition of US sanctions that were lifted under a 2015 nuclear accord with world powers, is pushing back. It has warned that it may no longer abide by the restrictions on its nuclear activities.
The arrival of Trump was a turning point. The president pulled the US out of the nuclear deal a year ago and embarked upon a policy of maximum pressure against Tehran. Iran has had enough. It is pushing the Europeans to do more to help its ailing economy and threatening if they do not - and it is hard to see what they can do - it will go ahead and breach the nuclear deal.
That would only give the Trump administration additional ammunition.  Much now depends upon the dynamics inside the Trump administration and also on Tehran's assessment of what is going on there.
The president himself has sought to play down the idea that his officials are divided regarding Iran, and reports indicate that he has little enthusiasm for war. His opposition to military entanglements abroad is well-known. However  Trump is unlikely to back down if US forces or facilities are attacked.    -BBC

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