Volatility in the Middle East
Middle East has been in a continuous political turmoil since decades. There are many conflicting issues like ethnic diversity, individual interest of various sects, and no proper sensible demarcation of boundaries across this nations right since the colonial rule, political and economic interest of various superpowers, inefficient existing political structures in the form of dictatorial rule, wars on these lands, emigration and propulsion of self-ruling groups are some of them to mention. All this has led to distortion of ordinary life in this countries.
The fundamental reason for the volatility in the Middle East is that the resources - population ratio had been deteriorating more intensely than other places. This is the cause, but political disturbance, political struggle, international interference are the effects.
Middle East is the earliest farmed land, its top soil had been seriously worn out by continuous intense farming over more than 12,000 years that cause mineral composition unbalance, microbial ecosystem unbalance, wind erosion, water erosion, losing biodiversity, ecosystem unbalancing. while the most important natural factor is the trend of weather change caused by the warming climate since ice age finishing that cause the rain belt moved north to nourish the newly opened north land mass of Europe and South Russia steppes while leave the Middle East drying up slowly.
At first, there are still some underground aquifers to be exploited with but that wouldn't last forever --- they dried up one by one. This process is still continuing today, while the population exploded under modern social system functions.
While in the meantime the old natural process still runs this modern social structure: free competition and natural selection. That means everyone acts according to his own best of present and short term interest --- that means the whole human society is corrupt. Natural process runs in manmade system is corruption. But it is the ruling class that possesses the power and they can much better serving themselves by using their power to take the benefit and maintain it. While the living conditions of the ordinary people are deteriorating alongside the population natural growth and resources dwindling alongside of the economic growth. On this piece of the oldest civilized land, natural resources had been exploited to the extreme and there is nothing for the poor to resort to make a living, unlike in the new world people still can encroach the nature (amazon forest) to make a living and even get rich though the new world is following the old fast.
When poverty level reached unbearable limit, people rise up to fight for whatever reason they can get, usually corruption and inequality, or religion, or racial difference� but the main reason always are --- they cannot survive under the present situation, they want to change it by whichever way.
We can see this class struggle again and again in human history. That did not change the nature of the process that runs society but merely changed the order among the population that composed of this society: the winners of this struggle taking over the power and becoming the new ruling class and do the basically same thing as their predecessors. People changed their social positions but the process that runs this society did not change, it is still the old natural process. This had been recurrent for many times in human history up to this day. The winners favor natural process because this process benefits them the most; therefore this process continues stably regime by regime.
Are these recurrent cycles of natural boosting and busting is ordering our present human social system that will produce positive result? Can this cycle recurrent like this forever? No, because natural process always brings destructive effects on manmade structure. Though the social Darwinists always take the examples of the old days of natural process ran natural system that ordered everything out of it to be applied in today's modern human society, because they still cannot understand the difference between natural system and manmade system, and they still cannot imagine what is rational system and rational process, they insist the old natural process regardless whatever the social environment conditions have naturally evolved to.
You simply cannot expect any positive result will come out of this contradiction between natural process and manmade system. There will be no better future or worse future; there will be no future at all for anyone if this natural process keeps running our modern social system --- the material base for the process is running out fast.
The oil in Middle East is actually add on the volatility social economic situation: the oil is unrenewable resources and it is being up fast, while the money coming in boost the population growth and living standards up that is planting the seeds for future crisis: When oil run out, what you do with the bubbled up population and its high living standards? Even the richest country in Middle East --- Saudi Arabia is feeling the pressure.
John Ahmed is a journalist